Vietnam Weekly: Vietnam accelerates macro-stability push, deepens U.S. trade and chip ties

November 14, 2025 to November 20, 2025

This week's top 10 stories from Vietnam, selected from our daily intelligence briefs.

1. Government Orders Coordinated Drive to Safeguard Macrostability and Boost Exports, Eyes >8% Growth in 2025

Vietnam’s government, led by Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, has ordered a coordinated, urgent push to safeguard macroeconomic stability, rein in inflation, and accelerate exports through year-end, targeting growth above 8% in 2025. The directive assigns the State Bank to manage rates and FX flexibly while channeling credit to priority sectors and tightening bad-loan controls; the Ministry of Industry and Trade to intensify export promotion, diversify markets (including GCC, MERCOSUR) and fast-track trade pacts; and Finance to pursue targeted fiscal expansion, tariff recalibration and support measures for firms affected by U.S. countervailing duties by November. Localities must remove bottlenecks and prevent border congestion for farm shipments, while Foreign Affairs will deepen economic diplomacy to push the Vietnam–GCC FTA.

The move follows robust trade and agricultural performance in 2025: total trade hit US$762.4 billion in the first 10 months (+17.4% y/y) with a US$19.6 billion surplus; agri-exports reached over US$58 billion (+13% y/y) and an almost US$18 billion surplus. Standouts include coffee exports up 62% to US$7.4 billion (average export price US$5,653/ton, Central Highlands harvest +10%), seafood at US$9.3 billion (China now 20% share), and wood products at US$14 billion; rice volumes are projected at 8 million tons. Officials and sector leaders, including Prof. Bui Chi Buu and General Secretary To Lam, stress a pivot to R&D, science–technology and digital infrastructure to sustain gains amid global uncertainties and climate pressures.

Local Coverage: vietnamplus.vn, vneconomy.vn, baotintuc.vn, com.vn, thanhnien.vn

From daily briefs: 2025-11-17, 2025-11-20

2. Reciprocal Trade Talks With U.S. Log Major Gains; Semiconductor Ties Deepen

Vietnam and the U.S. completed the fifth round of direct negotiations on a Reciprocal Trade Agreement in Washington, D.C. (Nov. 12–14), reporting “major progress” on services, digital trade, agriculture, TBT and SPS issues while narrowing gaps on remaining items. Both sides plan follow-up virtual technical meetings and a minister-level online session later in November to resolve policy-level matters; U.S. Deputy Trade Representative Rick Switzer and Trade Minister Nguyen Hong Dien framed the talks as implementing the Oct. 26 joint framework and aligning trade commitments with senior directives.

The discussions ran in parallel with outreach to U.S. industry and lawmakers, underscoring deeper semiconductor and supply‑chain ties: John Neuffer of the Semiconductor Industry Association said U.S. firms see long‑term growth in Vietnam, and Nebraska agribusiness and U.S. footwear brands signaled continued integration despite tariff concerns. Hanoi highlighted expanded U.S. purchases—cotton +126%, corn and soy +35%, seafood +8%—and pressed for removal from U.S. D1/D3 export‑control lists and recognition of market‑economy status to unlock high‑tech trade. U.S. officials said a reciprocal tariff of 20% on Vietnamese‑origin goods would remain broadly, with zero tariffs possible for select items, while cooperation on AI, semiconductors, logistics, LNG and economic security advanced alongside the trade talks.

Local Coverage: vneconomy.vn, thanhnien.vn, vietnamplus.vn, baotintuc.vn, tuoitre.vn, com.vn, vnexpress.net

From daily briefs: 2025-11-15, 2025-11-16

3. Production Shift from China Extends as U.S.-China Frictions Push Manufacturers to Vietnam and India

U.S.-facing manufacturers are accelerating shifts of production out of China to Vietnam, India, Mexico and Eastern Europe amid continuing U.S.-China friction and sustained tariff risk, a trend that began with tariffs in Donald Trump’s first term and persists despite a recent trade “truce.” Average duties on Chinese goods remain near 47.6%, executives say, and U.S. Census data now show increasing shares of U.S.-bound smartphones and laptops originating in India and Vietnam. Companies such as Trayton Group moved sofa output to Vietnam after heavy tariff losses, and Man Wah invested near Ho Chi Minh City in 2019 to serve North America.

Business leaders—including Adam Sitkoff, Executive Director of AmCham Hanoi, and Gabriele Natale, CEO of Man Wah USA—report the easing has not altered long-term strategy; firms worry that a competitive U.S.-China relationship raises sourcing risk and that tariffs can follow across jurisdictions. Key implications for international supply chains include concentration of footwear, electronics and furniture production in Vietnam, growing India sourcing, and unresolved rules-of-origin questions when Chinese inputs are processed in third countries.

Local Coverage: vneconomy.vn

From daily brief: 2025-11-14

4. Global Gold Prices Slide as Fed Rate-Cut Bets Fade; Vietnam, U.S. Advance Trade Talks

Global gold prices plunged on Nov. 14, briefly losing nearly US$140/oz and closing at US$4,080 (−US$90), marking the steepest one‑day drop in weeks and the lowest level in over a month as markets pared back expectations for a December U.S. rate cut. CME FedWatch odds for a December cut fell to about 46% after cautious Federal Reserve remarks and limited U.S. data following a 43‑day government shutdown; other precious metals also retreated even as gold still posted a 2.3% weekly gain for Nov. 10–14.

In Washington, Vietnam’s Industry and Trade Minister Nguyen Hong Dien said Hanoi seeks deeper cooperation with the U.S. in high‑tech, AI and semiconductors under their Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, urging Washington to ease high‑tech export controls and grant market‑economy status. The two sides reported progress across services, digital trade, agriculture and technical barriers/sanitary measures during the fifth round of direct talks, signaling potential shifts in trade and technology ties that could affect supply chains and investment flows.

Local Coverage: com.vn

From daily brief: 2025-11-17

5. Decree 264 Establishes Public-Private Venture Capital Framework and National VC Fund

Vietnam has issued Decree 264, establishing the country’s first comprehensive legal framework for venture capital and enabling coordinated public‑private co‑investment under the principle of “public capital, private governance.” The decree allows VC funds to be structured as LLCs or JSCs, hire licensed private managers, invest via fund‑of‑funds, and perform portfolio‑level risk assessments (with an explicit cap allowing up to 50% loss of charter capital), while granting liability waivers for managers in cases of force majeure or market shocks. Officials project each public dong could attract roughly four private dongs.

Concurrently, the National Venture Capital Fund launched with VND 500 billion and a target of at least VND 2,000 billion within five years; provinces may set up flexible local funds (Hai Phong has already announced a VND 500 billion fund). The policy prioritizes strategic technologies and cybersecurity firms and is presented as aligning Vietnam’s VC practice with international norms, aiming to catalyze private capital into the startup ecosystem.

Local Coverage: baotintuc.vn

From daily brief: 2025-11-16

6. Revised Investment Law Draft Narrows Project Approvals, Expands Fast-Track Mechanism

Vietnam’s draft amendment to the Law on Investment narrows the scope of projects requiring central investment-policy approval to sensitive infrastructure (ports, airports, telecoms, publishing/press), use of land and sea areas, major environmental-impact projects, and national defense/security zones, while expressly exempting other cases and decentralizing approvals by one level per a Politburo directive. The cabinet retained an approval step after debate over abolition, and the draft expands the 2020 “green lane” fast‑track, revises sector/location incentives, and removes 25 conditional business lines (with calls from stakeholders for deeper cuts) — measures Finance Minister Nguyen Van Thang says will shorten procedures, increase transparency and boost competitiveness.

The package also targets mobilisation of private capital for rail manufacturing and large, long‑horizon infrastructure projects: the Finance Ministry proposes aligning the Investment Law with the Railway Law to allow extended operating periods for national and local rail projects to improve bankability in line with Party Resolution 68 and National Assembly Resolution 198. Industry leaders call for stronger tax and credit incentives, domestic contractor preferences and unified technical standards for projects such as the proposed North–South high‑speed line; Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has signalled a public–private financing model and pushed to start the Hai Phong–Hanoi–Lao Cai route within the year.

Local Coverage: baotintuc.vn

From daily briefs: 2025-11-14, 2025-11-17

7. Spyware Attacks Surge 79% in H1 2025, Pushing Vietnam to Top of Southeast Asia Rankings

Kaspersky reports a 78.8% year-on-year surge in spyware attacks in H1 2025, with Vietnam recording 191,976 incidents—nearly 45% of Southeast Asia’s total 427,265 detections and averaging 1,520 hits per day. Malaysia (96,539) and Indonesia (85,560) followed, while Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines saw substantially lower volumes.

The attacks—often delivered via infected installers, websites or files—silently capture keystrokes, screenshots and credentials before exfiltration, exposing corporate credentials, payment data and browsing histories. Kaspersky highlighted growing use of commercial “zero-click” spyware families such as Pegasus, Reign and Predator, and pointed to forensic advances (e.g., GReAT’s 2024 iOS Shutdown.log analysis) for detecting advanced implants, underscoring elevated operational risk for enterprises in the region.

Local Coverage: com.vn

From daily brief: 2025-11-20

8. EU Envoy Outlines Path to Upgrade Ties with Hanoi, Linking Trade, Energy Transition and Security Cooperation

The EU and Vietnam are preparing to elevate ties to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership as they mark 35 years of diplomatic relations, driven by three concrete pillars outlined by EU Ambassador Julien Guerrier. Economically, the EVFTA has helped bilateral trade grow roughly 40% since 2020, and full implementation plus greater investor transparency are seen as keys to unlocking additional EU capital. On energy, the Just Energy Transition Partnership channels over €15 billion in planned EU-linked investment to support Vietnam’s clean-energy shift. Security cooperation is expanding via the EU’s first ASEAN Framework Participation Agreement, enabling peacekeeping collaboration.

New cooperation areas under discussion include innovation, semiconductors and critical raw materials, while ongoing Global Gateway projects focus on sustainable infrastructure and digital skills. Guerrier welcomed Vietnam’s legal changes addressing illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing but emphasized the need for enforcement to remove the EU’s “yellow card.” He expressed hope that the upgrade will be implemented during an upcoming high-level European visit to Vietnam in the coming months.

Local Coverage: vietnamplus.vn

From daily brief: 2025-11-20

9. Luxshare-ICT Plans Multi-Billion-Dollar Expansion with New Projects in Bắc Ninh and Beyond

Chinese electronics giant Luxshare-ICT told Vietnam’s General Secretary Tô Lâm it will significantly expand operations in Bắc Ninh and other provinces, pledging new science and technology projects that aim for at least $10 billion in future project revenue. The announcement follows roughly $1.8 billion invested over the past decade and the creation of tens of thousands of local jobs, with Luxshare describing Vietnam as its most important overseas manufacturing hub across 29 markets (Wang Laisheng, Vice Chairman).

Vietnamese leadership signalled alignment with the group’s plans by prioritising digital and green economy initiatives, high‑tech manufacturing, electronic components and semiconductors, and urging technology transfer and workforce training to raise localisation rates. General Secretary Tô Lâm committed to equal treatment for foreign investors and a fairer, more transparent business environment, underscoring policy support that could accelerate Luxshare’s scale‑up and deepen Viet Nam’s role in regional high‑tech supply chains.

Local Coverage: vietnamplus.vn, baotintuc.vn, vietnamplus.vn, baotintuc.vn, vnexpress.net, vnexpress.net

From daily brief: 2025-11-16

10. Vanguard to Open Vietnam Trading and Capital Accounts Following Market Upgrade

Australia’s securities chief Joseph Longo congratulated Vietnam on its upgrade from frontier to emerging market during Melbourne meetings between Vietnam’s State Securities Commission (SSC) and the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC). The agencies reviewed cooperation under an August 2024 MoU on sustainable finance, corporate governance, supervision and combating online market abuse; SSC chair Vu Thi Chan Phuong asked for deeper collaboration on enforcement, capital raising, corporate bond issuance, fund industry development and training, and sought ASIC guidance as Vietnam pilots a digital asset trading market under Resolution 05.

Separately, global asset manager Vanguard — which manages nearly US$13 trillion — said it will begin investment activity in Vietnam by opening trading and indirect capital accounts to test new regulations. Vanguard’s move could pave the way for broader inflows from passive index funds and active managers following the market upgrade, with potential implications for liquidity, foreign participation and capital-raising dynamics in Vietnam’s still-developing markets.

Local Coverage: tuoitre.vn

From daily brief: 2025-11-14

About This Weekly Digest

The stories above represent the most significant developments from Vietnam this week, selected through our AI-powered analysis of hundreds of local news articles.

Stories are drawn from our daily intelligence briefs, which synthesize reporting from Vietnam's leading news sources to provide comprehensive situational awareness for international decision-makers.