Uzbekistan Weekly: Uzbekistan tightens fiscal discipline, recalculates GDP, deepens Japan ties

November 27, 2025 to December 3, 2025

This week's top 10 stories from Uzbekistan, selected from our daily intelligence briefs.

1. IMF Urges Faster Banking Reforms, Tighter Fiscal Discipline as Growth Risks Overheating

An IMF mission led by Yassir Abdih, which visited Uzbekistan from November 17–25, urged faster banking-sector reforms, tighter fiscal discipline, and continued monetary restraint to prevent overheating after rapid growth. Real GDP expanded 7.6% in January–September 2025, while headline and core inflation slowed to 7.8% and 6.6% in October; the IMF endorsed the Central Bank’s 14% policy rate and greater exchange-rate flexibility to support inflation targeting. The Fund warned that rising retail credit, large gold-driven revenues and any expansion of directed or concessional lending could fuel excess demand, strengthen the real exchange rate and complicate macro stability.

The IMF recommended phasing out directed/concessional lending, broadening the tax base, and adopting a comprehensive FSAP-based financial-sector reform roadmap, while keeping consolidated budget deficits near 3% and limiting unplanned windfall spending. Reserves cover roughly 12 months of imports, the current account deficit has narrowed, and the Fund projects growth of 7% in 2024 and 6% in 2025, with inflation converging to the Central Bank’s 5% target by end‑2027 if recommended policies are sustained.

Local Coverage: gazeta.uz

From daily briefs: 2025-11-28, 2025-12-02

2. Data-Driven Overhaul Recalculates GDP and Shrinks Shadow Economy Following Stats Digitization Drive

Uzbekistan has recalculated its 2024 GDP following a major digitization drive led by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and the National Statistics Committee, raising nominal GDP from $115 billion to $121.4 billion by capturing an additional 81 trillion soums across services, construction, agriculture and industry. The reform—initiated after a February reorganization—integrated 60 state systems, introduced automated feeds from tax e-cash registers, utilities and farm records, and cut business reporting burdens by 27%. Authorities report the shadow economy’s share falling from 50% in 2017 to 35% in 2024, and plan to incorporate a further 79 trillion soums of informal activity to reduce the shadow share to 29%.

Preparations are underway for a January 2025 electronic census covering 9,008 mahallas using tablets, a dedicated portal and geospatial monitoring, supported by 60,000 trained staff. A World Bank-backed National Strategy for the Development of Statistics through 2030 plus Deloitte-designed packages (23 initiatives, 70 projects) aim to institutionalize AI and modern IT in statistics—prioritizing e-commerce, IT, remote services and freelance work—to improve policy targeting, transparency and measurement accuracy.

Local Coverage: anhor.uz, kun.uz, gazeta.uz, uzdaily.uz, uza.uz

From daily briefs: 2025-11-28, 2025-11-29

3. State Oil Company Signs 9.7 Trillion Soum in Direct Contracts Despite Tender Ban

O‘zbekneftgaz, Uzbekistan’s state oil company, has signed direct contracts worth 9.7 trillion soums (≈$809 million) despite a July 2021 presidential decree (PQ-5171) banning direct procurement by state entities. Procurement specialist Komol Niyazov — founder of TenderZone — estimates roughly half of public purchases are still made via direct awards, well above the 15–20% seen in advanced economies and contrary to President Mirziyoyev’s call to halve that share. An analysis of over 1,350 contracts shows large spending on oil-and-gas equipment, valves, industrial pumps, engineering and construction, with substantial Chinese-sourced machinery cited for cost and service reasons; similar procurement patterns persist at Navoiuran and in the Health Ministry.

The continued prevalence of direct awards raises governance and market-competition concerns as Uzbekistan seeks to expand competitive tenders; Niyazov recommends gradually moving toward a 75/25 split favoring tenders, noting the transition will be slow given market size and capacity limits. Authorities including the Prosecutor General’s Office have been queried about the contracts, underscoring potential regulatory scrutiny of a market Niyazov calls “very big” and difficult to reform abruptly.

Local Coverage: anhor.uz

From daily brief: 2025-12-03

4. Tashkent Prepares Presidential Visit to Japan as Tokyo Plans First Central Asia Summit

Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev is preparing an official visit to Japan following talks between Presidential Administration head Saida Mirziyoyeva and Japan’s newly appointed ambassador to Uzbekistan, Kenji Hirata. The sides are expanding a bilateral program that emphasizes cooperation in education, healthcare and culture, including planned exhibitions in Tokyo and Osaka, as they "enrich the bilateral agenda," Saida Mirziyoyeva said.

The trip is expected to coincide with Japan’s initiative to host the first Central Asia–Japan leaders’ summit in mid‑December in Tokyo, aimed at deepening ties with resource‑rich Central Asian states and advancing cooperation on economic security, decarbonization technologies and infrastructure. Aligning Mirziyoyev’s visit with the summit could accelerate project pipelines and signal renewed momentum in Japan–Central Asia engagement.

Local Coverage: qalampir.uz, uzdaily.uz

From daily brief: 2025-11-30

5. Central Asia Moves to Form Critical Metals Production Hub with EU-Backed Data and Finance Initiatives

Central Asian governments are advancing plans for a regional critical raw materials (CRM) production hub to pool deposits and processing capacity across Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan, arguing integration is needed to reach economic scale and attract international investors. Uzbekistan’s deputy mining minister Ural Yusupov said standalone projects may be uneconomic and that a joint centre would make the region “highly attractive for European, American and other international investors.” To support investor‑grade resource assessment, Finland’s Geological Survey (GTK) will join the EU‑backed Data for CRM project to build integrated geochemical, geophysical and geological data architecture.

Multilateral finance and governance measures are being mobilised alongside technical work: the EBRD is channeling a €100 million Junior Mining Program and new EU grants into active initiatives including implementation of Uzbekistan’s new Subsoil Law, a regional CRM laboratory in Kazakhstan and regulatory gap analysis in Tajikistan. The UN has warned of governance and crime risks in CRM supply chains and urged stronger licensing transparency and investigative capacity, signalling that securing financing and market access will depend on both technical data and strengthened oversight.

Local Coverage: gazeta.uz

From daily brief: 2025-11-27

6. Central Bank Pilots Universal QR Payments in December, Standard Due by January 2026

The Central Bank will pilot a universal QR code for cashless payments in December 2025 under its newly approved 2025–2026 fintech support program, with a nationwide standard to be drafted and approved by January 2026. Banks and payment institutions will take part in the pilot; Deputy Director Miraziz Mirhayotov said the goal is a single QR at each business that accepts payments from any mobile app or service, replacing the current proliferation of multiple QR plates that complicate checkout (gazeta.uz).

Regulator expects merchants to save on POS terminal costs and to benefit from integrated automatic tax cashback. The move follows strong market uptake: in 2024 more than 108,000 entrepreneurs obtained individual QR codes and QR payment volumes grew nearly 31% to 441.79 billion soums, signaling substantial user adoption ahead of standardization.

Local Coverage: gazeta.uz

From daily brief: 2025-11-29

7. UNEP Atlas Warns of Faster Warming and Intensifying Drought Risk Across Uzbekistan

The UN Environment Programme’s new Atlas of Environmental Change warns that Uzbekistan has warmed 1.6°C over the past six decades—nearly three times the global average of 0.6°C—with the Aral Sea region warming fastest (1.8–2.5°C). UNEP documents accelerating drought recurrence (extreme events in 2000, 2001, 2008 and 2011, then six dry years between 2019–2024), widespread rangeland degradation (≈60% loss of productivity) and projections that continued glacier melt will cut reservoir inflows by 2050, reducing river-basin flows in very hot, dry years by a further 25–50% and exacerbating irrigation deficits.

The atlas identifies the highest climate risk in the lower Amu Darya—Karakalpakstan and Khorezm—while mountainous zones face increased spring flood and outburst-lake hazards. Although seismic threats remain significant, UNEP stresses that climate-driven extremes will intensify, underscoring urgent needs for improved land and water management, climate-adaptive irrigation planning, and targeted risk reduction in the most vulnerable basins.

Local Coverage: gazeta.uz

From daily brief: 2025-11-27

8. Debt Portfolio Outlined for 2026 as Public Liabilities Reach $44 Billion

Uzbekistan’s draft 2026 budget outlines a conservative fiscal path while formalising fresh borrowing: the deficit ceiling is set at 59.9 trillion soums (≈3% of GDP) with GDP targeted at 1.976 quadrillion soums, 6.6% growth and inflation forecast near 7% for 2026 (5–6% in 2027, 5% in 2028). Authorities propose up to $5 billion in new external borrowing split evenly — $2.5 billion for budget support (including deficit financing) and $2.5 billion for investment projects — plus up to 30 trillion soums in domestic securities and a $6.5 billion cap on PPP projects requiring state guarantees.

Public liabilities stood at $43.97–$44.0 billion as of 1 October 2025 (32.3% of GDP), up $4.88 billion year‑on‑year, with external debt $36.7 billion (84%) and domestic debt $7.2 billion (16%); per‑capita public debt is $1,154. Major creditors include the World Bank ($8.0bn), Asian Development Bank ($7.5bn) and eurobond investors ($5.84bn), while Chinese and Japanese institutions feature among bilateral lenders. The stock is concentrated in budget support (47%), energy (16%) and agriculture/water (9%), raising FX exposure and refinancing risks; investors will watch creditor breakdowns, maturities and interest terms as policymakers balance fiscal consolidation with targeted capital spending ahead of the 2026 budget cycle.

Local Coverage: uza.uz, uzdaily.uz, anhor.uz, kun.uz, qalampir.uz

From daily briefs: 2025-11-27, 2025-11-29, 2025-11-30, 2025-12-01, 2025-12-03

9. International IT Zone Adopts Common Law Framework with Independent Arbitration Court

Uzbekistan has created Enterprise Uzbekistan, an international digital technologies center within IT Park operating under a special legal regime aligned with the common law norms of England and Wales or standards used by leading global financial centers, established by presidential decree to attract IT investment and foster AI and digital solutions. The center permits activities such as software development, consulting and outstaffing, BPO, game and digital content production, and AI development, and will adjudicate disputes via an independent, specialized court outside Uzbekistan’s judicial system to provide neutral, expedited commercial dispute resolution.

For international firms and investors, the move offers greater contract certainty and regulatory predictability—potentially easing cross-border financing, venture deals and contracting—while practical details (court composition, language of proceedings, and domestic enforcement of rulings) will be decisive for confidence and integration with Uzbekistan’s broader legal framework.

Local Coverage: kun.uz, uzdaily.uz

From daily briefs: 2025-11-28, 2025-11-30

10. New ‘Business Companion’ Centers to Consolidate Services as Tashkent Targets $45bn Exports by 2030

Uzbekistan has set a target to raise exports to $45 billion by 2030, combining market diversification with structural reforms to make doing business easier. A presidential presentation identified priority sectors—construction materials, light industry, electrical equipment, food, household chemicals, machinery and metallurgy—and called for preferential trade with target countries and expanded border-crossing capacity to handle increased flows.

To address administrative fragmentation—81 agencies currently provide 739 services to entrepreneurs, 576 of them delivered in a fragmented way (for example, meat production requires 17 steps across 10 bodies)—the Chamber of Commerce and Industry will launch “Biznes hamroh” (Business Companion) centers. Initially rolling out in Jizzakh, Fergana and Andijan with 200 billion soums allocated, the centers will integrate state and private services via a single electronic platform and a 24/7 call center; Davron Vakhobov, Chamber Chair, says they will enable entrepreneurs to resolve up to 80% of issues in one place.

Local Coverage: anhor.uz, gazeta.uz, kun.uz, qalampir.uz, gazeta.uz, uzdaily.uz

From daily brief: 2025-12-02

About This Weekly Digest

The stories above represent the most significant developments from Uzbekistan this week, selected through our AI-powered analysis of hundreds of local news articles.

Stories are drawn from our daily intelligence briefs, which synthesize reporting from Uzbekistan's leading news sources to provide comprehensive situational awareness for international decision-makers.