Uzbekistan Weekly: Uzbekistan advances 2026 budget, secures UAE WTO backing, eyes C5+1 summit

December 4, 2025 to December 10, 2025

This week's top 10 stories from Uzbekistan, selected from our daily intelligence briefs.

1. Parliament Advances 2026 Budget as Government Projects 6.6% Growth and Tighter Fiscal Limits

Uzbekistan’s lower house approved the draft 2026 state budget in its first reading and sent it to the Senate, aligning fiscal planning with the “Uzbekistan–2030” strategy. The Economy and Finance Ministry projects real GDP growth of 6.6% to 1,976 trillion soums in 2026, with sectoral expansion led by market services (14.5%), construction (10.2%) and industry (6.4%), and inflation easing toward 7–7.5%. Consolidated revenues are set at 515.4 trillion soums against expenditures of 567 trillion, capping the overall deficit at 3% of GDP; the state budget component forecasts 368.9 trillion in revenues and 402.4 trillion in outlays. Social spending accounts for about 220 trillion soums (55% of total), including education (25.5%), healthcare (12.1%) and social protection (4.2%).

Fiscal measures include higher excise taxes on alcohol, tobacco and sugary drinks, a new chips tax, and retention of core tax and customs rates; new external borrowing is limited to US$5 billion and PPP commitments to US$6.5 billion. The budget also reallocates some VAT to local budgets, expands local financing for education and infrastructure, and earmarks targeted allocations (e.g., 50 billion soums for interregional hospices, 194 billion for the Tourism Committee). The Central Bank published its 2026–28 monetary blueprint, signalling tighter policy into early 2025 after a March rate rise to 14% and targeting 5% inflation by end-2027; risks cited include import disruptions, larger fiscal shortfalls and energy shocks, while higher gold prices and faster privatization are noted as mitigating factors.

Local Coverage: gazeta.uz, uzdaily.uz, anhor.uz, uza.uz

From daily briefs: 2025-12-04, 2025-12-06

2. UAE Backs Uzbekistan’s WTO Accession in 2026 After High-Level Trade Talks

Uzbekistan’s chief WTO negotiator Azizbek Urunov met with UAE Minister of State for Foreign Trade Dr. Thani Al Zeyoudi to discuss global trade trends, WTO operations and reform, during which the UAE reaffirmed its support for the multilateral trading system and signalled readiness to facilitate Uzbekistan’s accession to the World Trade Organization in 2026. Both sides framed accession as a catalyst for deeper UAE–Uzbekistan trade and investment ties, identifying logistics, agrifood and services as priority sectors that would benefit from WTO disciplines and greater regulatory predictability.

For international businesses and policymakers, the UAE’s backing signals growing external endorsement of Tashkent’s market-opening timetable and may accelerate preparatory reforms and investor engagement ahead of 2026. The meeting underscores a strategic push to align Uzbekistan with global trade rules to unlock cross-border commerce and broader regional partnerships.

Local Coverage: uzdaily.uz

From daily brief: 2025-12-10

3. Tokyo Plans December C5+1 Summit with Central Asia Leaders

Japan will host a C5+1 summit with the five Central Asian states in Tokyo on December 19–20, with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi considering bilateral meetings with regional leaders, Nippon reports. The summit follows intensified high-level engagement between Central Asia and Russia, China, and the U.S., and comes after the Liberal Democratic Party’s parliamentary league revived plans halted by Takaichi’s canceled August visit to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Mongolia due to an earthquake risk.

Tokyo aims to reassert its diplomatic and economic role in Central Asia, with Taro Aso (LDP vice president) calling successful convening “very important” diplomatically. Preparations are also advancing in Tashkent ahead of the Uzbek president’s upcoming visit to Japan, indicating active agenda-setting and potential for Tokyo to deepen bilateral and multilateral cooperation on trade, investment and regional security.

Local Coverage: gazeta.uz

From daily brief: 2025-12-09

4. Trans-Caspian Corridor Pushes Reforms on Digital Docs, Border Procedures and Port Capacity

At a Tashkent investment forum officials and logistics executives mapped the bottlenecks and investment needs to scale the Trans‑Caspian International Transport Route, where Uzbekistan’s freight through the corridor topped 1 million tons in 2024—more than five times 2019 volumes. The EU reiterated long‑term support beyond the Ukraine war, calling the corridor commercially and geostrategically important; Uzbekistan proposed road upgrades, a Taxtaqoracha toll tunnel and an Uchquduq–Kyzylorda road‑rail link, with the EU and EBRD agreeing to fund the link’s initial feasibility study.

Speakers warned that fragmented permits, driver visas and paper‑based customs processes, despite digital investments, are slowing flows and raising costs: “Every additional hour waiting at the border raises costs and weakens each country’s export competitiveness,” said OECD analyst Celesta Laporte‑Talamon. Kazakhstan proposed a single‑corridor agreement to harmonize tariffs, service standards and delivery times, while port operators highlighted shallow Caspian waters, seasonal fleet shortages and limited route information as capacity constraints that will require coordinated investment and interoperable e‑document recognition to unlock the route’s full potential.

Local Coverage: gazeta.uz

From daily brief: 2025-12-05

5. IMF Welcomes Progress on Income and Asset Disclosure Laws as WTO Accession Advances

The IMF mission welcomed Uzbekistan’s steady reform progress as the country advances toward World Trade Organization accession targeted for March 2026, underscoring steps to strengthen governance and anti‑corruption frameworks. The Fund noted draft laws to protect whistleblowers and to mandate income and asset declarations for public officials are being readied for parliamentary submission, although the lower house reported it has not yet received them. Uzbekistan first planned a comprehensive disclosure regime in 2017; partial requirements for leaders of majority state‑owned enterprises and their families were introduced in 2022.

Despite the Anti‑Corruption Agency’s claim that the broader bill has been largely prepared and cleared by ministries and the Justice Ministry, a planned public consultation and an April 1 submission to parliament did not occur, and the disclosure reform has been delayed multiple times. IMF and business stakeholders view the measures as pivotal for improving public‑sector efficiency and the investment climate, and progress (or further delay) on these specific laws will be closely watched in the run‑up to WTO accession.

Local Coverage: gazeta.uz

From daily brief: 2025-12-04

6. O‘zbekneftgaz and Cargill Agree on Up to $3 Billion in Long-Term Financing, with Scope to Expand to $5 Billion

UNG Overseas, the international trading and investment arm of state oil and gas company O‘zbekneftgaz, has signed a cooperation agreement with U.S.-based agribusiness and commodities firm Cargill to mobilize up to $3 billion in long-term financing, with a roadmap to expand the facility to $5 billion. The structured-finance arrangement will target projects that strengthen Uzbekistan’s energy security and resource resilience—upgrading power and water infrastructure, improving system reliability for households and industry, and supporting climate adaptation and industrial modernization.

UNG Overseas will coordinate strategic partnerships and attract international capital while Cargill supplies structured finance expertise; the deal follows O‘zbekneftgaz’s creation of Orient Energy Limited in the UAE to broaden export markets and develop new hydrocarbon supply chains. For international investors and industry stakeholders, the agreement signals Tashkent’s push to use global financing and trade platforms to fast-track energy-sector investment and reduce operational and climate-related risks.

Local Coverage: gazeta.uz, uzdaily.uz

From daily briefs: 2025-12-05, 2025-12-09

7. China-backed restart of Qo‘ytosh tungsten mine set for commercial output next year

Uzbekistan’s Jizzakh regional administration has announced plans to restart the Qo‘ytosh underground tungsten mine, a China-backed project with estimated reserves of about 2.5 million tonnes. Located on the southwestern edge of the Nurata range, the operation will mine and process ore at depths near 500 meters and build an on-site modern separation plant; site clearing is to be completed by year-end and commercial extraction is targeted for 2026.

Officials project the first phase will create roughly 100 permanent jobs, with additional employment as capacity ramps up, and present the initiative as part of a broader push to position Uzbekistan among major global tungsten producers. The move reflects continued Chinese participation in large-scale Uzbek resource projects and follows recent activity in the country’s mining sector, including asset sales that signal growing international investment and supply-chain implications for critical metals.

Local Coverage: qalampir.uz, kun.uz

From daily brief: 2025-12-08

8. Finance Minister Defends Deficit Strategy, Caps New External Borrowing at $5 Billion for 2025

Uzbekistan’s Finance Minister and Deputy PM Jamshid Qo‘chqorov defended the government’s deficit strategy during parliamentary review of the 2026 budget, arguing deficits should be judged relative to GDP and endorsing a 3%‑of‑GDP benchmark as prudent. Qo‘chqorov said past surpluses reflected constrained access to credit before currency‑convertibility and tax reforms, and framed sustained deficits as financing growth‑oriented spending tied to a projected ~7.3% GDP expansion.

The government will cap new external borrowing at $5.0 billion for 2025, down from a $5.5 billion ceiling this year; public debt stood at $43.97 billion (32.3% of GDP) as of Oct. 1, up roughly $3.75 billion year‑to‑date. External public debt is $36.7 billion (27% of GDP) and domestic debt $7.25 billion (5.3%); fixed‑rate obligations total $20.4 billion, floating $16.0 billion. Quarterly debt growth decelerated (Q1 +5.9%, Q2 +2.1%, Q3 +1.1%). S&P cautioned that faster‑than‑expected borrowing could raise fiscal risk if projects underperform, while Qo‘chqorov argued current debt remains moderate and finances infrastructure and social priorities.

Local Coverage: gazeta.uz, kun.uz, qalampir.uz, uza.uz

From daily brief: 2025-12-04

9. Central Asia Sets 2025–2026 Water Allocations as Amu Darya, Syr Darya Quotas Finalized

Central Asian states have agreed on cross‑border water allocations for October 2025–October 2026, fixing detailed quotas for the Amu Darya and Syr Darya to manage irrigation, seasonal needs and ecological flows. The Amu Darya withdrawal cap is set at ~55.4 bcm for the period, including a 15.9 bcm cold‑season (Oct–Apr) allocation and a requirement that 44 bcm pass the Kerki hydropost in Turkmenistan to secure downstream supplies. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan each receive 22 bcm from the Amu Darya; separate environmental volumes include 4.2 bcm reserved for the Aral Sea and Amu Darya delta (about half allocated in winter/early spring) and 0.8 bcm for sanitation‑ecological permits covering Dashoguz (Turkmenistan), Khorezm and Karakalpakstan.

On the Syr Darya, the vegetation‑period (2026) withdrawal limit is 4.219 bcm, allocated primarily to Uzbekistan (about 3.347 bcm) with smaller shares to Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Officials say the allocations reflect projected inflows, reservoir stocks and ecological flow requirements, signaling continued regional coordination to balance agricultural demand and environmental restoration amid variable hydrology and competing national interests.

Local Coverage: kun.uz, anhor.uz

From daily brief: 2025-12-05

10. Central Bank Halts Humans P2P Transfers as Card-Theft Spree Triggers Blame Exchange with Paylov

Uzbekistan’s Central Bank suspended peer-to-peer transfers in the Humans app after a wave of unauthorized card withdrawals flagged as “PL Humans P2P/H2H” hit between Dec. 4–8. Regulators ordered Octagram (the Paylov brand) to halt operations while investigating an apparent security breach; Uzcard and Humo rails remain operational for other apps. Humans says attackers exploited a Paylov infrastructure vulnerability that allowed use of stored card tokens and keys against Paylov’s API without OTPs and that some victims fall outside its customer base. Paylov denies any flaw on its side and insists Humans was responsible for protecting encrypted keys.

The dispute exposes operational and legal risk as Humans is concurrently in bankruptcy proceedings and carrying heavy liabilities, complicating restitution for affected users and cross‑provider accountability. The Central Bank’s intervention highlights regulator willingness to stop platform-level P2P services pending forensic results, and raises broader questions about token/key custody, API security and consumer protection in Uzbekistan’s fintech ecosystem.

Local Coverage: kun.uz, qalampir.uz, gazeta.uz, gazeta.uz, uzdaily.uz, anhor.uz, gazeta.uz, uzdaily.uz

From daily brief: 2025-12-10

About This Weekly Digest

The stories above represent the most significant developments from Uzbekistan this week, selected through our AI-powered analysis of hundreds of local news articles.

Stories are drawn from our daily intelligence briefs, which synthesize reporting from Uzbekistan's leading news sources to provide comprehensive situational awareness for international decision-makers.