Mongolia Weekly: Mongolia advances mining reforms, tenders Tavan Tolgoi, nears EAEU trade deal

February 7, 2026 to February 13, 2026

This week's top 10 stories from Mongolia, selected from our daily intelligence briefs.

1. Nationwide Hearings Launched on Overhaul of Mineral Law and Tax Regime

On February 11 the Ministry of Economy and Development, the Mineral Resources and Petroleum Authority and the National Geological Service launched province-by-province hearings on a wide-ranging overhaul of Mongolia’s Mineral Law and related fiscal rules, with formal consultations across 21 provinces ahead of a draft expected to reach Parliament for the March 15 spring session opening. The package—part of a 2026 legal reform push—would revamp up to half of the statute while preserving core principles and aims to diversify exploration licensing (application- and tender-based issuance), tighten holding costs for inactive licenses, and formalize a national “critical minerals” list aligned with global supply chains.

Fiscal and operational changes are designed to shift Mongolia from raw extraction to value-added processing: royalty (AMNAT) calculation methods would move toward Mongolian Stock Exchange price benchmarks, copper royalties would be adjusted to international norms, and royalty treatment for concentrates, processed products and by‑products would be refined. Drafts propose directing 20% of AMNAT to host soums and 10% to aimags, linking future approvals to verified mine closure and rehabilitation, and incentivizing local beneficiation (the government aims to restart dozens of processing plants). Given mining’s macroeconomic weight—reported at roughly 26–28% of GDP or state revenue, 79–94% of exports and up to 74% of industrial output—authorities argue reforms are needed to stabilize investment, reduce community opposition and attract capital through clearer, more equitable benefit‑sharing.

Local Coverage: montsame.mn, itoim.mn, gogo.mn

From daily briefs: 2026-02-07, 2026-02-10, 2026-02-12

2. Government Opens International Tender to Develop Borteeg Section of Tavan Tolgoi

Mongolia’s Cabinet has approved an international, open tender to bring the Borteeg section of the Tavan Tolgoi coking coal deposit into commercial operation by selecting a private partner. First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Development J. Enkhbayar is tasked to present the project to reputable global companies and solicit proposals; bidders will be evaluated on financial returns, relevant track records, and comprehensive development plans. Officials were also ordered to review and propose any necessary amendments to laws and regulations to enable final contracting.

The move signals a government push to diversify operator participation across Tavan Tolgoi’s six sections (Tavantolgoi, East and West Tsankhi, Ukhaa Khudag, Borteeg, Sereet and Bayangol) and could accelerate export capacity if infrastructure and regulatory adjustments proceed in tandem. No timeline or specific fiscal terms were announced publicly.

Local Coverage: eagle.mn, gogo.mn, itoim.mn, montsame.mn, urug.mn

From daily brief: 2026-02-12

3. Government Shortlists Five Firms for Copper Smelter at Erdenet, Eyes Decision This Quarter

Mongolia has shortlisted five firms—China’s NFC, Jiangxi Copper, Liantou New Energy Technology, China ENFI Engineering, and Switzerland’s Glencore—to build a long-delayed US$0.8 billion copper concentrate smelter at Erdenet, with a final decision expected this quarter, the Cabinet Secretariat said. Thirteen companies from seven countries responded to outreach to 55 firms across more than 20 countries; the move aims to shift value locally by converting concentrate (around US$3,000/tonne) into refined copper (US$10,000–12,000/tonne).

The proposal faces major constraints: high capital expenditure, limited power and water supplies, and environmental risks—particularly sulfuric acid management—and follows earlier stalled domestic smelter ambitions tied to Oyu Tolgoi amid operating-cost, tax and infrastructure disputes. The timing aligns with tightening global copper markets; S&P Global forecasts a growing supply shortfall from 2025, a backdrop that could support higher prices and strengthen the economic case for domestic refining if Mongolia can address the logistical and environmental challenges.

Local Coverage: unuudur.mn

From daily brief: 2026-02-11

4. EAEU–Mongolia Temporary Trade Deal Nears Implementation as Four States Ratify

A three-year temporary trade agreement between Mongolia and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is poised to enter into force after ratification by Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Mongolia; Armenia and Kyrgyzstan have not yet completed parliamentary approval. The deal removes or reduces customs duties on 367 HS6 product lines bilaterally, establishes tariff‑free quotas for selected items (with protective quotas for wheat and eggs to shield domestic producers), excludes VAT and excise duties, and introduces measures such as origin self‑certification for shipments under €5,000 and risk‑based inspections to streamline customs.

For Mongolia, 97.5% of covered exports are agricultural and livestock products; 81.7% of EAEU exports to Mongolia are mineral and chemical goods that Mongolia cannot readily source domestically. Duty relief on key capital goods and 42 CPI‑tracked imports is expected to reduce costs and encourage investment, while the preferential access could reshape short‑term trade flows and supply chains across the region during the three‑year term.

Local Coverage: gogo.mn, montsame.mn

From daily brief: 2026-02-10

5. Parliament Orders Oyu Tolgoi Overhaul as Russian Ruling Raises Legal Risk for Rio Tinto

In December 2025 Mongolia’s long-running dispute over the Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mine intensified after a Russian arbitral court ordered Rio Tinto to pay $1.32 billion to RUSAL and the Mongolian Parliament adopted Resolution No. 120 demanding major governance reforms. Parliament’s measures seek to revisit Entrée Resources’ Shivee Tolgoi and Javkhlant licences, renegotiate the 2011 Shareholders’ Agreement to reduce interest on shareholder loans and raise Mongolia’s effective take to 53%, and require export revenues to be routed through Mongolian banks to improve transparency.

The mine remains a major fiscal contributor—paying $660 million in taxes and fees in 2025 and $5.5 billion since 2010—but public frustration over delayed dividends and loan costs underpins the push for change. Rio Tinto denies breaches and argues current financing terms reflect project and country risk. The parliamentary moves strengthen Ulaanbaatar’s bargaining position ahead of 2026 negotiations but increase the risk of arbitration and may deter investment if disputes intensify.

Local Coverage: itoim.mn, itoim.mn

From daily brief: 2026-02-07

6. Ulaanbaatar–Washington ties advance with push for more high-level visits and new MCC-style projects

Mongolia’s foreign minister B. Battsetseg met U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Deputy Secretary Christopher Landau in Washington on February 5, following her participation in a U.S.-hosted ministerial on critical minerals on February 4 that convened representatives from 55 countries. The meetings reaffirmed the “Strategic Third Neighbor” partnership and agreed to increase the frequency of senior-level exchanges, strengthen people-to-people links, and expand practical cooperation across trade, mining, energy, telecommunications and artificial intelligence.

Officials highlighted the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Second Compact—due to conclude in March and expected to increase Ulaanbaatar’s water supply by 80%—as a template for follow-on, MCC-style projects. Discussions signalled an emphasis on market-driven, private-sector investment in critical minerals supply chains and processing, positioning Mongolia to diversify beyond coal and copper and attract upstream and processing investment. For international investors and policy-makers, the agenda points to intensified U.S. engagement and potential project and financing opportunities in infrastructure, energy security and digital connectivity.

Local Coverage: gogo.mn, montsame.mn, isee.mn, unuudur.mn

From daily briefs: 2026-02-07, 2026-02-13

7. Government Secures 60% Resource Revenue Share from Four Mines via Special Royalty Mechanism

The Mongolian government has reached preliminary memoranda with four mining operators—Achit Ikht, Energy Resources (MCS), Khangaad/Hangad Exploration and Ösökh/Usukh Zoos—to ensure at least 60% of economic returns from Uhaa Khudag, Nariinsukhait, Tavantolgoi’s Baruun Naran and Erdenet’s copper waste dump accrue to the public through a special mineral royalty (AMNAT) plus a top‑up “adjustment payment” if annual public take falls below the 60% floor. Proceeds will flow into the National Wealth Fund with individual accounts viewable on E‑Mongolia; officials are targeting visible balances and potential withdrawals from 2030.

The deal — negotiated since August 2025 and presented as an alternative to taking at least 34% state equity — is framed as shifting companies’ remuneration from illiquid equity to predictable cash flows, and has been publicly endorsed by industry leaders and government figures including Prime Minister G. Zandanshatar and Cabinet Secretariat Chief S. Byambatsogt. Parliament must still legislate calculation rules and formalize the framework, so implementation risks remain political and technical (valuation methods, enforcement of adjustment payments), but the agreement signals a détente in protracted mining policy disputes and a material boost to Mongolia’s resource revenue capture.

Local Coverage: ikon.mn, news.mn, isee.mn, gogo.mn, eagle.mn, unuudur.mn, urug.mn, itoim.mn, montsame.mn

From daily briefs: 2026-02-11, 2026-02-12

8. Forecast Points to Slowing Growth and Persistent Inflation Through 2026

The Bank of Mongolia’s Q4 2025 analyst projections, reported by urug.mn, point to steady but slowing growth and persistent inflation through late 2026. After a stronger-than-expected 5.9% year-on-year real GDP expansion in Q3 2025, growth is forecast to ease to 5.6% in Q4 2025 and 5.3% by Q3 2026, signaling continued momentum without a meaningful acceleration. Inflation in Ulaanbaatar, which reached 9.9% in Q3 2025, is expected to remain elevated at about 9.5% in Q4 2025 and 9.1% by Q3 2026, keeping real household purchasing power under pressure.

Monetary settings are set to provide only limited relief: policy rates are projected to decline modestly from 11.9% in Q4 2025 to 11.3% by Q3 2026, while lending rates are likely to remain near 17%. The combination of sticky inflation and high borrowing costs suggests constrained consumer demand and restrained private-sector credit growth despite stable headline GDP performance, implying a cautious operating environment for investors and international partners through 2026.

Local Coverage: urug.mn

From daily brief: 2026-02-12

9. Rail Freight Dominance at Khangi Chokes Coal Exports as Trucking Collapses

On February 9, coal transfers at Khangi’s rail-to-truck facility were reportedly halted, producing long queues and sharply constricting a major export route. Most NABT truck-loading yards for coking coal have closed, with only three operating at 20–30% capacity, and about half of roughly 80 road transport firms have gone bankrupt as drivers shift to the alternative border points Gashuunsukhait and Shivee Khuren. Industry sources say entities tied to Transport Minister B. Delgersaikhan—through Bold Tumur Yeruu Gol and Gobi Mining and Transport Group—control Khangi’s railway and linked yards and are prioritizing iron ore over coal.

The operational squeeze has had measurable trade and fiscal effects: coal exports via Khangi fell about 29% in 2025 while Mongolia’s iron ore exports rose 17.2% to 8.8 million tonnes, much routed through the same network. The article alleges that policy and concession arrangements have produced a de facto monopoly that undermines Erdenes Tavantolgoi’s coal revenues and exacerbates government fiscal strain, raising governance and market-access risks for international buyers and investors.

Local Coverage: news.mn

From daily brief: 2026-02-11

10. Foreign Minister B. Battsetseg, China’s Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong Advance Strategic Dialogue and ‘One China’ Alignment

Mongolia’s Foreign Minister B. Battsetseg met with China’s Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong in Ulaanbaatar on 11 February following the 7th vice‑ministerial Strategic Dialogue held there on 10 February, endorsing the dialogue as a mechanism to deepen the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and accelerate trade and economic cooperation. Battsetseg reiterated Mongolia’s commitment to sovereignty, non‑interference and the “One China” policy, while Sun—conveying greetings from Chinese FM Wang Yi—stressed implementing Strategic Dialogue outcomes and flagged Beijing’s 15th Five‑Year Plan as an avenue for expanded, high‑quality Belt and Road cooperation and project opportunities.

The talks, co‑chaired by Mongolia’s Deputy FM G. Amartuvshin and Sun Weidong, reviewed progress on major joint projects, trade and border‑checkpoint efficiency—areas central to Mongolia’s export logistics to China—and agreed to sustain diplomatic momentum via scheduled high‑level visits and further coordination on regional and multilateral issues. For international stakeholders, the meeting signals continued policy alignment on core sensitivities and a practical pivot toward infrastructure, customs facilitation and project delivery that could materially affect Mongolia’s commodity flows and investment landscape.

Local Coverage: montsame.mn

From daily briefs: 2026-02-12, 2026-02-13

About This Weekly Digest

The stories above represent the most significant developments from Mongolia this week, selected through our AI-powered analysis of hundreds of local news articles.

Stories are drawn from our daily intelligence briefs, which synthesize reporting from Mongolia's leading news sources to provide comprehensive situational awareness for international decision-makers.