Kazakhstan Weekly: Kazakhstan unveils unicameral reform, eyes $4B arbitration win, deepens U.S.-China ties

January 29, 2026 to February 4, 2026

This week's top 10 stories from Kazakhstan, selected from our daily intelligence briefs.

1. Draft Constitution Unveils Unicameral Legislature, Vice President Post, and New Amendment Rules

Kazakhstan’s Constitutional Reform Commission has published a draft Constitution that would replace the current bicameral Parliament with a 145‑seat unicameral Quryltai elected by full proportional representation for five‑year terms, create a presidentially appointed Vice President (subject to Quryltai consent), formalize a People’s Council with legislative initiative, and tighten procedures for referendums and no‑confidence votes. The draft—said to rewrite roughly 80–84% of the Basic Law and composed of 11 sections and about 95–104 articles depending on versions—strengthens judicial independence and the Constitutional Court’s supervisory role, codifies expanded state priorities (rule of law, national unity, innovation, human‑focused social commitments), adds digital‑era rights and privacy protections, and enshrines bans such as the death penalty prohibition; final adoption will require a nationwide referendum.

Officials present the text as a values‑driven modernization aligned with President Kassym‑Jomart Tokayev’s reform agenda and greater parliamentary authority, while analysts caution it largely formalizes an existing super‑presidential practice—highlighting continuity in presidential appointment powers and uncertain transitional rules for the outgoing bicameral Parliament. Key critics also flag omissions (education funding details, environmental duties for legal entities) and potential concentration risks despite added accountability mechanisms; the commission continues to accept public input via e‑Otinish and eGov portals ahead of the referendum.

Local Coverage: informburo.kz, dknews.kz, aikyn.kz, egemen.kz, inform.kz, malim.kz, zakon.kz

From daily briefs: 2026-01-30, 2026-01-31, 2026-02-01, 2026-02-03, 2026-02-04

2. Arbitration Ruling Could Yield Up to $4 Billion from Karachaganak Operators

An international arbitration panel has ruled in favor of the Republic of Kazakhstan in a long-running dispute over the Karachaganak oil and gas project, potentially obliging foreign shareholders to pay $2–4 billion in compensation; authorities caution the award is not yet final as it moves through enforcement and possible investor appeals. Officials, including the Energy Ministry, are withholding details to avoid prejudicing recovery and to preserve enforceability; timing and mechanics of any payments will determine the award’s budgetary impact and near-term fiscal planning.

Analysts say the decision — described by energy analyst Abzal Narymbetov as a rare legal victory for the state in the past 15 years — strengthens Kazakhstan’s institutional experience in defending contractual rights under international arbitration and could influence future negotiations with large consortia and disputes (including potential lessons for Kashagan). The government stresses the outcome does not signal a change in its investment policy: Kazakhstan remains open to foreign capital and technology in oil and gas while insisting on strict adherence to contract terms. A new gas processing plant at Karachaganak is scheduled to begin operations in 2028.

Local Coverage: egemen.kz, aikyn.kz, malim.kz

From daily briefs: 2026-01-30, 2026-01-31

3. US Lawmakers Weigh Trade Normalization and Critical Minerals Projects in Talks with Kazakh FM

US lawmakers and Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister Yermek Kusherbayev held talks in Washington signaling momentum toward a deeper strategic partnership focused on trade normalization and critical minerals cooperation. Meetings with House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Representative Brian Mast and Senator Steve Daines emphasized support for expanding trade and investment—particularly projects tied to critical minerals—and a planned March Congressional delegation to Kazakhstan aims to convert political understandings into concrete projects.

Lawmakers discussed removing the Jackson–Vanik amendment’s legacy constraints to establish permanent normal trade relations, with Senator Daines indicating active legislative work that could open broader commerce and finance channels. Kusherbayev invited US legislators to visit Kazakhstan to advance practical cooperation, underscoring both sides’ intent to translate high-level engagement into tangible economic and strategic outcomes.

Local Coverage: dknews.kz

From daily brief: 2026-02-05

4. Chinese Energy Firm Signs MoU to Invest $7.5 Billion in Complex Gas Production

Chinese energy firm Geo Jade Petroleum Corporation signed a memorandum of understanding with Kazakhstan’s national investment promotion agency, Kazakh Invest, in Astana to pursue up to $7.5 billion in complex gas‑production projects. The MoU—whose timing was announced without specific project locations, timelines or offtake terms—signals Geo Jade’s intent to develop challenging gas resources as Kazakhstan seeks to boost domestic supply, expand processing capacity and support industrial demand.

The agreement is a preliminary, non‑binding framework that typically precedes feasibility studies, licensing, environmental assessments and regulatory approvals; the scale implies multi‑field development and potential downstream infrastructure investment. If carried through, the program could materially enhance Kazakhstan’s energy security, reduce import reliance during peak demand and attract service, technology and capital providers to the upstream and midstream sectors.

Local Coverage: inform.kz

From daily brief: 2026-02-04

5. Second Nuclear Power Plant Approved for Almaty Region’s Zhambyl District

The Government approved construction of a second nuclear power plant in Almaty Region’s Zhambyl District by resolution signed 26 January by Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov; the decree takes immediate effect and formally designates the site as the “Second Nuclear Power Plant” installation. The move places both of the country’s initial nuclear facilities in the same region—groundwork for the first plant began in August 2025 near Ulken village and that project has since been named “Balkhash” after a national contest—and the resolution was published on the Adilet legal information system to provide the legal basis for site preparation and permitting.

The decision signals a continued policy to expand baseload generation to meet rising electricity demand and to diversify away from aging thermal assets, but key implementation details remain unspecified: technology choice, financing structure and construction timeline have not been disclosed. For international professionals, the development highlights potential opportunities and risks in project procurement, financing and grid integration in the Almaty region, and suggests upcoming tendering and permitting activity to monitor.

Local Coverage: zakon.kz, inform.kz, egemen.kz, malim.kz

From daily brief: 2026-02-03

6. Berlin Roundtable Sets Course for German Investment in Critical Minerals Projects with Kazakhstan

A Berlin roundtable on [date not specified] brought together more than 50 participants from government, research, finance and industry — including Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank and KfW — to signal renewed German engagement in Kazakhstan’s critical raw materials sector and to advance a “raw materials for technology” cooperation model spanning extraction, processing and project finance (dknews.kz). Speakers framed supply security as a strategic German priority and highlighted Kazakhstan’s competitive strengths cited by Ambassador Nurlan Onzhanov: diversified minerals, established infrastructure, a skilled workforce and clear regulation that support long‑term ventures.

Participants noted existing German investment in Kazakhstan’s manufacturing base and saw scope to expand beyond extraction into downstream industrial partnerships that would strengthen European energy and industrial resilience. The roundtable therefore positions bilateral critical‑minerals projects as a component of Europe’s broader response to decarbonization and supply‑chain security challenges, with banks and public financiers (Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, KfW) signalling readiness to support project finance.

Local Coverage: dknews.kz

From daily brief: 2026-02-01

7. Foreign Investors’ Council Advances AI-led Industrial Push with new 10-year ‘Golden Visa’ and IT export target

Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov on [date not specified] chaired an interim Foreign Investors’ Council meeting to accelerate AI adoption and high‑tech manufacturing, setting a government target of $1.2 billion in IT service exports for 2025 supported by a new Digital Code, the Alem.ai center, a venture fund, and infrastructure projects including the “Data Processing Center Valley” and Astana Hub. To attract longer‑term capital, authorities approved new investor visa rules for 2025 that introduce a 10‑year “Golden Visa.” The EBRD’s engagement will be coordinated via a newly created prime minister‑led council.

Pilots cited at the session demonstrated tangible AI gains—power line defect recognition achieved 98% accuracy and heat network diagnostics in Shymkent cut costs by over 70%—underscoring operational upside for investors in energy and utilities. Market participants flagged outstanding concerns on cloud regulation, cross‑border data transfer, tariffs and mining taxation; ministries committed to follow‑up, signaling regulatory attention that international investors should monitor closely.

Local Coverage: inform.kz, dknews.kz, zakon.kz, aikyn.kz, egemen.kz, malim.kz

From daily brief: 2026-01-30

8. Government Overhauls Investment Support Ecosystem, Expands Legal Protections and Targets FDI Deals

The government has restructured its investment-support ecosystem toward a proactive, targeted model, introducing “investment orders” and pre‑packaged projects to accelerate deal flow and investor outreach. For 2024 authorities set ambitious targets of KZT 31.5 trillion in fixed investment and $25.5 billion in FDI, planning 475 projects worth KZT 16 trillion and expecting more than 1,100 permanent jobs; the National Digital Investment Platform now lists 1,047 projects valued at KZT 74.5 trillion, with 273 projects worth KZT 2.49 trillion launched last year.

Policy changes also strengthen legal protections for investors: the Prosecutor General’s office has assumed the Investment Ombudsman role and will “accompany investment projects,” issuing binding preliminary warnings and instructions, while a new Investors’ Rights Protection Committee replaces the Illicit Assets Recovery Committee. High‑profile foreign pipelines include CHN Corporation’s proposed $4 billion coal‑chemicals complex and Fufeng Group’s $800 million corn processing plant. The measures aim to boost investor confidence through clearer institutional guarantees and faster, more predictable deal facilitation.

Local Coverage: egemen.kz

From daily brief: 2026-01-30

9. Strategic Partnership Sealed as Tokayev’s State Visit to Pakistan Delivers 19 Agreements and $200m in Deals

Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s state visit to Pakistan on February 3–4 culminated in a formal upgrade to a strategic partnership and the signing of 19 cooperation documents covering transit trade, customs, rail and maritime links, mining, AI and digital assets, health, education, climate and security — including an extradition treaty and a UN peacekeeping MoU. A Kazakhstan–Pakistan business forum produced more than 30 commercial agreements worth nearly $200 million, and leaders set an ambitious target to raise bilateral trade to $1 billion in the coming years; direct flights and enhanced transit routes via Karachi, Gwadar, the Trans‑Caspian corridor and the Kazakhstan–Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan rail concept were prioritized.

Tokayev was awarded Pakistan’s highest civilian honor, the Nishan‑e‑Pakistan, in a ceremony attended by President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, underscoring political goodwill and strategic intent. For Pakistan, the partnership signals deeper engagement with Central Asia and leverage of regional transit and CPEC links; for Kazakhstan, it advances a South Asia pivot with potential gains in trade, logistics and defense cooperation. The agreements provide a framework for converting diplomatic momentum into concrete projects, though implementation and private‑sector follow‑through will determine their economic impact.

Local Coverage: malim.kz, aikyn.kz, egemen.kz, informburo.kz, inform.kz, zakon.kz, dknews.kz

From daily briefs: 2026-02-03, 2026-02-05

10. Tengiz Oil Output Restarts in Phases with Safety Controls and Pressure Boost Systems

Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry announced that phased restart of production at the Tengiz field has begun after a January 18 transformer fire forced a safety shutdown. The first well was reactivated at 03:35 local time and five wells are now online; the Second Generation Plant was restarted on January 26 and is being fed from the Korolev field. Technical teams at Tengizchevroil are preparing additional group metering stations while compressors and four transformers are being used to raise pressure as system parameters stabilise.

Authorities—including Vice Minister Khairkhan Tutkyshbayev on site, the Energy Ministry and national oil company KazMunayGas—said output will be ramped up gradually with industrial safety and regulator oversight as priorities. International stakeholders should expect staged increases in volumes as safety and stability benchmarks are met; recovery efforts and equipment support aim to accelerate a return to planned capacity.

Local Coverage: aikyn.kz, inform.kz, malim.kz, zakon.kz, egemen.kz, dknews.kz

From daily briefs: 2026-02-01, 2026-02-03

About This Weekly Digest

The stories above represent the most significant developments from Kazakhstan this week, selected through our AI-powered analysis of hundreds of local news articles.

Stories are drawn from our daily intelligence briefs, which synthesize reporting from Kazakhstan's leading news sources to provide comprehensive situational awareness for international decision-makers.