Kazakhstan Weekly: Kazakhstan unveils progressive tax, anti-inflation push, and e-Residency launch

January 8, 2026 to January 14, 2026

This week's top 10 stories from Kazakhstan, selected from our daily intelligence briefs.

1. New Tax Code Introduces Progressive Income Tax and 16% VAT, Tightens Compliance Rules

Kazakhstan’s new Tax Code, effective 1 January 2026, replaces the 2017 regime and introduces a progressive personal income tax (10% up to 8,500 MCI annually — about KZT 33.4m — and 15% on income above that), raises the standard VAT rate to 16% (with 0% for exports/SEZs, medicines and medical services at 5% in 2026 and 10% from 2027, and 10% for domestic periodicals), and tightens compliance and enforcement rules. The code discontinues prior special tax regimes by default but allows taxpayers to retain or elect a special regime by notifying authorities by 1 March 2026; failure to notify will place taxpayers under the general regime from 1 January 2026. Other notable changes include a higher monthly tax‑free allowance (30 MCI), expanded disability deductions, a 15% corporate tax on dividends for shareholders holding ≥25%, expanded VAT exemptions for some residential real estate, a two‑year minimum holding period for tax‑free capital gains on properties registered from 1 January 2026, and a mandatory VAT registration threshold set at 10,000 MCI (≈KZT 43.25m).

Analysts and officials, including President Kassym‑Jomart Tokayev and economist Almas Chukin, frame the package as fiscally driven to close budget gaps and improve fairness while signaling more rigorous administration (harder debt enforcement, removal of voluntary VAT deregistration, and revised sectoral taxes). Businesses and international stakeholders should model exposure to the segmented VAT rates, review eligibility for simplified or special regimes before the 1 March notification deadline, and consult revenue authorities to avoid penalties under the tightened compliance framework.

Local Coverage: egemen.kz, dknews.kz

From daily briefs: 2026-01-08, 2026-01-09, 2026-01-10, 2026-01-15

2. President Outlines Anti-Inflation Steps, Farm Cooperatives Push, and Asset-Recovery Shift Toward Investor Protections

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced a package of measures to curb persistently high inflation and address social inequities, including a winter pause on utility tariff increases, a mandate to improve budget efficiency, and a coordinated three‑year anti‑inflation program led by the Government, National Bank and Financial Market Agency. Early measures cut household gas prices in Astana from 49 to 43 tenge/m3 and Tokayev backed restricting beef exports after prices nearly doubled; he also called for stronger livestock development, better subsidies for small farms, and a return to agricultural cooperatives to boost efficiency and market access.

Tokayev said repatriation of illicit assets will continue but with shifting coordination as processes mature and a new emphasis on protecting investor rights; asset recovery deals above 5 trillion tenge are earmarked for infrastructure, mining, energy and social projects. He reiterated anti‑corruption as a priority and denied moves toward a parliamentary system. Independent analysts caution that import dependence, infrastructure deterioration and potential power shortages remain risks; non‑oil sectors grew 6.5% in real terms in 2025, with nominal GDP near $300 billion, but wage gains lag due to tenge depreciation and accumulated inflation.

Local Coverage: egemen.kz

From daily briefs: 2026-01-08, 2026-01-10

3. Government launches expansive three-year subsurface mapping and seismic program with $500 million budget

The government has launched a three-year, 240 billion tenge (≈ $500 million) subsurface mapping and seismic program to modernize national geological data and attract private investment. Beginning with a 100,000 sq km planning phase and then mapping roughly 30,000 sq km annually at a 1:50,000 scale (upgrading from Soviet-era 1:200,000 maps), the program will execute 20 pre-prepared projects across priority zones using remote sensing, aero-geophysics, geochemical surveys, extensive fieldwork, laboratory modernization, and digitization of geological archives.

Priority targets were chosen for depletion risk, sparse current operators, and resource potential—specifically copper, gold, lead, zinc, rare earth elements, barite, and bauxite—while seismic campaigns will focus on underexplored hydrocarbon basins (North Torgai, Shu-Sarysu, Syr Darya). Framed as aligning with EU, Canadian, Australian and Chinese best practices, officials say the initiative aims to improve predictive accuracy, lower exploration risk and catalyze private-sector investment in both mining and oil & gas.

Local Coverage: inform.kz, aikyn.kz, egemen.kz, zakon.kz, dknews.kz

From daily brief: 2026-01-15

4. e-Residency Launch Opens Remote Access to Kazakhstan’s Digital and Financial Services for Foreigners

Kazakhstan has launched an “e-Residency of the Republic of Kazakhstan” program, effective 1 January 2026, allowing foreign citizens to obtain digital residency and access government and commercial online services without visiting the country. The fully remote onboarding — including application, data submission and identity verification — targets individuals, entrepreneurs, startups and investors who want to engage with Kazakhstan’s digital infrastructure; full application details are on the official portal, eresidency.gov.kz.

The move is positioned as part of a broader state digitalization strategy intended to simplify market entry, attract international investment and bolster Kazakhstan’s standing as a regional digital hub. For international professionals, the program reduces physical and bureaucratic barriers to doing business in Kazakhstan, potentially accelerating cross-border fintech, e‑commerce and service partnerships while increasing competition for regional talent and capital.

Local Coverage: dknews.kz

From daily brief: 2026-01-14

5. Foreign Ministry to Back KMG in Securing Investment, Technology and Export Routes

Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry and national oil company KazMunayGas (KMG) have agreed to deepen coordination to expand international cooperation, diversify hydrocarbon export routes, and attract foreign capital and advanced technologies, DKNews.kz reports. At the meeting between Foreign Minister Yerzhan Kusherbayev and KMG Chairman Askhat Khasenov, both parties prioritized using diplomatic channels to support KMG’s interests abroad, facilitate negotiations with foreign partners, and improve the investment climate as global market volatility persists.

The accord signals tighter state–company alignment to bolster energy security via new logistics solutions and international partnerships and to accelerate technological upgrades across the sector. For international professionals, the development suggests Kazakhstan will intensify government-backed efforts to secure export corridors and FDI for upstream and midstream projects, potentially increasing competitive opportunities for foreign energy and tech suppliers.

Local Coverage: dknews.kz

From daily brief: 2026-01-11

6. Mercuria to Finance Kazakhmys Acquisition with $1.2 Billion Loan Tied to Copper Offtake

Mercuria Energy Group will provide an $1.2 billion, eight-year loan to finance the acquisition of Kazakh copper producer Kazakhmys, Bloomberg reports. The facility is commodity‑backed: Mercuria will take 200,000 tonnes of copper cathodes annually for the first four years, then convert to a production‑linked profit‑share mechanism thereafter, tying repayment and returns directly to metal flows.

The deal follows takeover talks involving Nurlan Artykbayev and a December sale agreement; as of January 8 the state registry lists Qazaq Acquisition Corp., wholly owned by Artykbayev, as Kazakhmys’s new owner. The financing structure underscores the growing role of offtake‑linked loans in large Central Asian mining transactions and signals continuity of copper supply under the new ownership.

Local Coverage: malim.kz

From daily brief: 2026-01-10

7. Beijing–Astana Ties Deepen with Record Trade, New Logistics Links, and Cultural Push

China and Kazakhstan deepened ties in 2025 with record trade, expanded transport links, and intensified people-to-people cooperation. Bilateral trade reached $43.8 billion in January–November 2025, up 9.3% year‑on‑year, while top-level diplomacy saw two reciprocal visits: Xi Jinping attended the China–Central Asia summit in Astana and Kassym‑Jomart Tokayev visited China for SCO meetings and WWII commemorations. Infrastructure gains include the new “China (Xi’an) – Kazakhstan” logistics terminal, the Dostyk–Mointy second rail line, and additional Chinese air routes to Kazakhstan, enhancing freight and passenger capacity across key China–Central Asia corridors.

Beyond infrastructure, cooperation broadened into finance, agriculture, science and education: cross‑border payment arrangements were strengthened, an agri‑cooperation agenda advanced, partners co‑developed a nanosatellite, and new education centers were launched. Cultural diplomacy—restored memorials, exhibitions and the inaugural “Xi’an–Almaty” international tourist train—underscores a strategic push to consolidate economic interdependence and public diplomacy as both capitals pursue modernization and regional influence.

Local Coverage: dknews.kz

From daily brief: 2026-01-08

8. Xinfa Group Explores $15 Billion Industrial Park in Pavlodar Region After Talks with First Deputy PM

Singapore-based Xinfa Group is evaluating a proposed $15 billion, full‑cycle industrial park in Kazakhstan’s Pavlodar Region after talks with First Deputy Prime Minister Roman Sklyar. The project would cover more than 3,000 hectares and target deep processing of local bauxite, coal and copper — as well as fluorite and limestone — to produce higher value‑added outputs including aluminum and copper metallurgy, soda and carbon material plants, eco-construction solutions, and integrated energy infrastructure with renewable generation. Xinfa reports a preliminary review of Kazakhstan’s mineral deposits and sees potential to build a vertically integrated value chain.

Kazakh officials framed the proposal as consistent with national priorities to modernize industry and attract strategic investment; both parties agreed to further detail the plan and expand long‑term cooperation. For international investors and industrial partners, the scale (>$15bn, 3,000+ ha) and emphasis on downstream processing and energy integration signal a push to capture more value domestically, but will require detailed feasibility, financing and timelines to move from concept to execution.

Local Coverage: inform.kz, aikyn.kz, dknews.kz, egemen.kz

From daily brief: 2026-01-09

9. CPC Terminal Outages Cut Exports, Forcing Output Curbs and Reroutes to Russia and China

Drone strikes and storm damage have slashed shipments of CPC Blend through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s Black Sea terminal to roughly 800–900 kb/d in January—about 45% below mid-December plans—and forced cancellation of at least 21 of 45 planned tankers, temporary storage fill-ups and brief pipeline receipt halts. The disruption, following drone attacks on three tankers on 13 January (including Matilda and Delta Harmony), and earlier damage to a loading buoy, has flipped CPC Blend to premiums of $0.60–$1.20/bbl over Brent and prompted major producers to curtail output (Energy Monitor: Tengiz -51%, Kashagan -60%, Karachaganak -44%), with January liftings tracking near 500 kb/d versus a 1.65 mb/d plan.

Kazakh authorities have rerouted volumes via Atyrau–Samara and increased deliveries to China while repairs continue, but officials and analysts warn there is “no full‑fledged alternative” to CPC—which handles roughly 80–90% of Kazakhstan’s exports—heightening strategic risk and potential losses (analyst estimate: ~800,000 b/d shortfall and nearly $1 billion unrealized exports). The Foreign Ministry has held urgent talks with European partners and the U.S., called for joint maritime security measures, and stressed Kazakhstan is not a party to armed conflict; lawmakers urged U.S. pressure on Ukraine to stop attacks, underscoring geopolitical spillovers for European energy security.

Local Coverage: egemen.kz, inform.kz, zakon.kz, malim.kz, dknews.kz

From daily briefs: 2026-01-14, 2026-01-15

10. AIIB and Partners Finance Almaty Freight Bypass to Ease Rail Bottlenecks

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) approved $150 million toward a roughly $300 million package to finance a new electrified 75 km single-track freight bypass north of Almaty, Kazakhstan, with co-financing from the International Finance Corporation, Standard Chartered Bank and MIGA guarantees. Implemented by national operator Kazakhstan Temir Zholy, the Zhetygen–Kazbek Bek line will include new stations, bridges, viaducts and upgrades to two terminal sections; it is designed to divert cargo trains from densely populated urban areas, reduce congestion on existing lines and free capacity for passenger services.

Backers present the bypass as a strategic capacity and resilience upgrade for Kazakhstan’s rail network that could improve reliability and environmental performance of freight flows and strengthen the country’s role in Eurasian transit corridors, including the Trans‑Caspian route. AIIB Managing Director of Investments Konstantin Limitovskiy framed the project as removing “one of the most complex bottlenecks in the national rail system” and supporting long‑term development and trade connectivity.

Local Coverage: dknews.kz, informburo.kz

From daily brief: 2026-01-15

About This Weekly Digest

The stories above represent the most significant developments from Kazakhstan this week, selected through our AI-powered analysis of hundreds of local news articles.

Stories are drawn from our daily intelligence briefs, which synthesize reporting from Kazakhstan's leading news sources to provide comprehensive situational awareness for international decision-makers.