Kazakhstan Weekly: Kazakhstan secures U.S. sanctions relief, deepens Putin talks, weighs Abraham Accords

November 13, 2025 to November 19, 2025

This week's top 10 stories from Kazakhstan, selected from our daily intelligence briefs.

1. US Issues General License 124B Allowing Operations Linked to CPC, Tengizchevroil and Karachaganak

The U.S. Treasury on 14 November issued General License 124B authorizing transactions and continued operations tied to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), Tengizchevroil (TCO) and the Karachaganak petroleum project, explicitly permitting activity involving Rosneft, Lukoil and their subsidiaries when directly connected to those Kazakhstan-linked assets. 124B replaces General License 124A and allows “all transactions ordinarily incident” to support CPC, TCO and Karachaganak while preserving prohibitions on selling or transferring equity interests in those projects to third parties.

The move effectively excludes CPC, TCO and Karachaganak from the scope of U.S. measures aimed at Russian companies, reducing compliance risk for operators, shippers and financiers and helping to stabilise liftings and contractual planning for Kazakhstan’s main export route via the CPC pipeline to the Black Sea. By protecting continuity of upstream output tied to Tengiz and Karachaganak, Washington signals a targeted approach to preserve energy flows from multinational projects while maintaining limits on ownership changes involving sanctioned entities.

Local Coverage: egemen.kz, inform.kz

From daily briefs: 2025-11-16, 2025-11-17

2. Kremlin Hosts Formal Welcome for Tokayev as Bilateral Talks with Putin Get Underway

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev received a ceremonial welcome in the Kremlin’s St. George Hall and held bilateral talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, underscoring Moscow’s protocol emphasis and continuity of high-level engagement between the two allies. Both Kazakh and Russian media reported an informal meeting had concluded, but neither side issued an official readout, agenda, duration or outcomes.

Absent specifics, the setting and timing imply discussions likely touched on core bilateral priorities: energy cooperation (oil and gas), transit and logistics through Russian corridors, trade turnover, and regional security coordination within the Eurasian Economic Union and the CSTO—particularly managing sanctions-related supply-chain impacts. The visit signals continued top-level coordination that could influence regulatory and project decisions affecting cross-border trade and regional infrastructure.

Local Coverage: inform.kz, aikyn.kz

From daily brief: 2025-11-13

3. Oil Majors Seek Extended Licenses as Tengiz, Kashagan, Karachaganak Anchor Global Portfolios

International oil companies are consolidating around Kazakhstan’s three flagship fields—Tengiz, Kashagan and Karachaganak—because of strong near‑term cash flows and long‑dated licenses that make them core to global portfolios. Analysts project Tengiz will generate about $28 billion for Chevron and $14 billion for ExxonMobil, and negotiations to extend Tengiz’s current 2033 license are being treated as value‑accretive. Kashagan is likewise critical for Eni, TotalEnergies and Shell, with each company potentially earning roughly $5 billion in free cash flow by 2030; Eni’s stakes (Kashagan to 2041 and Karachaganak to 2037) rank among its top assets.

The concentration of reserves—about 20–25% of Chevron’s and Eni’s proven reserves are in Kazakhstan—strengthens the state’s bargaining position in extension talks and underpins strategic portfolio decisions. Political and sanction risks complicate partnerships with Russian players (notably Lukoil’s 50% stake in the Kalamkas‑Khazar project ahead of a $6.4 billion FID expected in 2025), while domestic production trends underscore the fields’ importance: total oil output rose 10% over the last decade, but output outside the three giants fell 35%.

Local Coverage: egemen.kz

From daily brief: 2025-11-19

4. Entry Into Abraham Accords Weighed as Strategic Pivot to Broader Middle East Partnerships

Kazakhstan has signaled intent to join the Abraham Accords, framing the move as a pragmatic evolution of its multi-vector diplomacy to deepen economic and technological ties with Israel and Gulf states. The presidential office said the step supports a balanced, constructive, peaceful foreign policy; international analyst Zhanat Momynkulov called it a shift to a “new qualitative level,” emphasizing expansion of partnerships beyond the U.S.–China–Russia triad. MP Yermurat Bapi highlighted potential for increased U.S. investment and Israeli tech cooperation, pointing to a recent $17 billion U.S.–Kazakhstan investment agreement as a precedent.

Officials and analysts also warned of regional risks: potential caution or pushback from Iran and Saudi Arabia and possible strain on the Iran–Indian Ocean transit corridor. Kazakhstan reiterated support for a two-state solution for Palestine, positioning the accession as a calculated strategic pivot aimed at economic diversification and technological modernization while managing geopolitical sensitivities.

Local Coverage: aikyn.kz

From daily brief: 2025-11-16

5. First Nuclear Plant Project Launches with Rosatom-Led Consortium; Workforce and Training Drive Outlined

Kazakhstan has begun construction of its first nuclear power plant under a Rosatom-led international consortium, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced via video link to the XXI Kazakhstan–Russia Interregional Forum. The project will mobilize about 6,000 construction workers and more than 3,000 mid-level specialists, with additional demand for nuclear-specific expertise; Tokayev emphasized that strengthening human capital is “of paramount importance” for successful delivery (aikyn.kz).

To meet workforce needs and underpin long-term operations and maintenance, Kazakhstan is deepening academic ties with Russia, including opening a branch of the National Research Nuclear University MEPhI at Al-Farabi KazNU. The move signals sustained bilateral cooperation on skills development and technology transfer and establishes an institutional pipeline for training nuclear professionals as the country expands its energy infrastructure.

Local Coverage: aikyn.kz, inform.kz, zakon.kz

From daily brief: 2025-11-13

6. Three-Year Joint Program Targets Inflation, Real Incomes and Non‑Oil Growth Through 2028

The government, National Bank and Financial Regulation Agency have approved a coordinated 2026–2028 Joint Action Program to stabilize the macroeconomy, curb inflation and raise living standards, targeting annual GDP growth of at least 5% and real-income gains of 2–3% per year. Announced by Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov and National Bank Governor Timur Suleimenov, the plan responds to October’s 12.6% annual inflation and an 18% policy rate (10 October) by maintaining moderately tight monetary policy, allowing a floating tenge with swift FX intervention to counter speculation, coordinating quasi‑sovereign FX operations, and creating a new Debt Management Office.

The program combines macro‑ and micro‑prudential measures (higher bank capital by April 2026, revised debt‑burden metrics, continued 25% mortgage‑rate cap until 1 July 2026, and regulation of BNPL/installments) with supply‑side reforms to cut import dependence and expand non‑commodity exports. Authorities will tighten fuel‑balance oversight, deploy tools to stabilize food prices (forward contracts, subsidies), deepen credit to the real sector, refine tariffs, and accelerate digitization including wider use of a digital tenge for social payments. Structural priorities include 100+ annual projects and 17 high value‑added ventures to boost productivity, logistics and investment—measures intended to reduce state economic participation and reinforce confidence in the tenge.

Local Coverage: aikyn.kz, inform.kz, dknews.kz, egemen.kz, informburo.kz, malim.kz, zakon.kz

From daily brief: 2025-11-20

7. Trade Turnover Tops $103.4B as Oil-Led Exports Outpace Imports in First Nine Months

Kazakhstan’s external trade reached $103.4 billion in January–September 2025, with exports of $57.5 billion outpacing imports of $45.9 billion, the National Statistics Bureau reports. Exports were dominated by crude oil and petroleum products, copper and copper alloys, radioactive elements, and copper ore/concentrates, with Italy (21%), China (18.8%), and Russia (10.3%) the top destinations—highlighting Europe’s sustained reliance on Kazakh hydrocarbons alongside growing Chinese demand. Imports were led by passenger cars, pharmaceuticals, vehicle bodies, phones and industrial goods, supplied mainly by China (29.5%) and Russia (29.1%), followed by Germany, the U.S., South Korea and France.

The trade surplus and shifting partner structure carry strategic implications: a commodity-heavy export mix reinforces vulnerability to commodity-price swings while deepening links with European and Chinese markets. In response to rising trade volumes and market exposure, the government has adopted measures on foreign trade regulation and domestic market protection, signaling tighter oversight that could affect foreign suppliers, investors and transit-dependent trade flows going into 2026.

Local Coverage: inform.kz

From daily brief: 2025-11-18

8. Arbitration Launched Against Shell and Exxon as State Tests Swiss Legal Venue

Kazakhstan has launched arbitration proceedings against Shell Plc and Exxon Mobil in Swiss courts, reportedly seeking claims in the "tens of billions of dollars," according to Egemen.kz citing Bloomberg. The government’s selection of a Swiss forum and public move to litigate signals a strategic shift from private dispute resolution to using international arbitration to press for renegotiated terms on flagship oil and gas projects; no specific filing dates or claim amounts have been independently confirmed.

The outcome could set a global precedent by bolstering states’ ability to revisit production‑sharing and investment agreements, raising political‑risk considerations for international operators in Kazakhstan’s upstream sector and potentially affecting contract stability and future licensing rounds. Key watchpoints for markets and counsel include the legal bases Kazakhstan advances, the timelines of proceedings, and whether Shell and Exxon opt for settlement or protracted litigation.

Local Coverage: egemen.kz

From daily brief: 2025-11-19

9. Business Groups Probe 2026 Tax Code Overhaul, Emphasizing Supportive Administration and Cross-Border Rules

Foreign and local business representatives in Almaty reviewed Kazakhstan’s new Tax Code, due to take effect on January 1, 2026, noting a shift from punitive oversight to taxpayer support aimed at boosting transparency, simplifying procedures and rebuilding state–business trust. The discussion, held under the “Development Day” project, focused on cross‑border rules important to international investors — withholding‑at‑source changes, updated permanent establishment definitions, application of double tax treaties, transfer pricing, taxation of digital services and tighter non‑resident reporting — with corporate leaders (Dias Asanov of Siemens Kazakhstan, Eduard Kinsbruner of the German Economy Representation, Maria Nazarova of SCHNEIDER GROUP) framing the reforms as both a confidence signal and an implementation challenge requiring professional advisory support.

Key fiscal changes flagged by the Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market and a Kazakh Senate briefing include a move from a single corporate tax rate to differentiated corporate income tax rates beginning in 2026, alongside adjustments to corporate and personal rates and optimization of special tax regimes. While specific rate bands and thresholds were not disclosed, international firms should expect further guidance on eligibility, transitional rules and sectoral incentives — details that will be critical for multi‑year capital planning and cross‑border tax compliance.

Local Coverage: egemen.kz, inform.kz

From daily briefs: 2025-11-13, 2025-11-20

10. Government Shifts to Quality-Focused Growth Model Emphasizing Productivity Gains

The government has unveiled a shift from headline GDP expansion to a quality‑focused development model that decomposes potential GDP to identify contributions from human capital, fixed investment, natural resources, labor productivity and technology. Officials, citing data showing productivity‑driven expansion from 2001–2024, identified total factor productivity (TFP) as the principal engine of growth and announced policies to raise labor productivity, improve job quality, and upgrade the technological level of capital to bolster long‑term productive capacity.

Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin framed the approach as a way to better align wage growth with GDP gains, saying the measures will “gradually close the gap between GDP growth and wage increases.” For international professionals, the shift signals a move toward efficiency and technology‑led reforms likely to affect investment priorities, skills development and productivity‑oriented fiscal and industrial policy.

Local Coverage: egemen.kz

From daily brief: 2025-11-20

About This Weekly Digest

The stories above represent the most significant developments from Kazakhstan this week, selected through our AI-powered analysis of hundreds of local news articles.

Stories are drawn from our daily intelligence briefs, which synthesize reporting from Kazakhstan's leading news sources to provide comprehensive situational awareness for international decision-makers.