Kazakhstan Weekly: Kazakhstan secures energy routes, expands Middle Corridor, digitizes finance

January 15, 2026 to January 21, 2026

This week's top 10 stories from Kazakhstan, selected from our daily intelligence briefs.

1. Trade Surplus Narrows 31% as Reserves Near $130 Billion, Leaving Tenge Stable but Exposed

Kazakhstan’s trade surplus narrowed 31% to $13.5 billion in January–November 2025, weighed by softer exports and rising imports, the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK) reported — a shift that reduces foreign-currency inflows and could pressure the tenge if sustained. For now, FX markets remain balanced thanks to National Bank interventions, state-sector conversions and exporters’ FX sales; the dollar closed at 511.11 tenge with lighter turnover. International reserves stood near $129.6 billion at the start of January (gross reserves $65.7 billion; National Fund $63.8 billion), with gold holdings at $47.2 billion and freely convertible FX assets at $18.5 billion.

Fiscal buffers were further bolstered by record National Fund investment income of 6.4 trillion tenge (~$12.6 billion) in the first nine months of 2025, bringing total assets to 29.85 trillion tenge despite net withdrawals (inflows 3.84 trillion; withdrawals 5.95 trillion). Oil-sector tax receipts dominated revenues (3.81 trillion tenge). Under tax reform, the government will cap annual transfers from the fund at 2.6 trillion tenge in 2026–28 to reduce budget reliance and rebuild savings, supporting the president’s goal to lift assets to $100 billion by 2030. Money-market rates sit near the policy corridor’s lower bound amid excess liquidity; equities were mixed as investors booked profits.

Local Coverage: dknews.kz, egemen.kz

From daily briefs: 2026-01-15, 2026-01-20

2. Oil Exports Rerouted Through KazTransOil Network Following CPC Constraints

At the end of December 2025 Kazakhstan’s national operators rerouted roughly 300,000 tonnes of crude through the KazTransOil network as sustained intake constraints at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) forced diversions to alternate corridors — Germany, China, the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) route via Aktau, and Russia’s Novorossiysk and Ust‑Luga ports. The Ministry of Energy said rerouting will continue into January 2026 as CPC capacity remains impaired after multiple drone attacks on CPC infrastructure (late 2025–early 2026) and storm damage sidelined loading buoys; CPC Blend loadings through the Black Sea terminal fell to roughly 800–900 kb/d, about 45% below mid‑December plans, producing a $0.60–$1.20/bbl premium to Brent.

The disruption has tightened supply and prompted partial production curbs by major fields—Energy Monitor cites output falls versus December of 51% at Tengiz, 60% at Kashagan and 44% at Karachaganak—with January liftings tracking roughly 500 kb/d versus a 1.65 mb/d plan. Exports to Germany reached 2.1 Mt in 2025 (target 2.5 Mt in 2026), BTC flows were 1.3 Mt (potential 1.6 Mt), and China remained at about 1.1 Mt; officials warn there is “no full‑fledged alternative to CPC,” so diversions via Atyrau–Samara and increased China deliveries are interim measures while repairs continue.

Local Coverage: egemen.kz

From daily briefs: 2026-01-15, 2026-01-17

3. Middle Corridor Expansion Advances with New Rail Links, Port Hub and China’s 2029 Throughput Target

Authorities are accelerating multimodal upgrades to boost competitiveness of the Middle Corridor between China and Europe, cutting transit times to 13–15 days overall with roughly four days inside the country. Recent infrastructure milestones include the Dostyk–Moyinty rail upgrade, the Almaty bypass line, a new container hub in Aktau and three additional Caspian vessels; digitalization efforts aim to streamline procedures and shift operators from simple routing to integrated logistics services across East–West flows, with outreach underway for the North–South axis.

An intergovernmental agreement to elevate the Corridor’s status is due for adoption this year, and capacity is expected to expand by 2028–2030. Beijing has signaled stronger engagement: Vice Minister Zhanibek Taizhanov said China plans to ship 300,000 containers a year via the route by 2029, underscoring the Corridor’s strategic role and potential to reallocate Eurasian trade flows if investments and procedural reforms continue.

Local Coverage: egemen.kz, egemen.kz

From daily brief: 2026-01-20

4. Legal Overhaul Establishes Digital Tenge, Open Banking, Unified QR and Regulated Crypto Market

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has signed legislative amendments creating a national digital finance architecture that grants formal legal status to the National Digital Financial Infrastructure and recognizes the digital tenge as legal tender nationwide, with the National Bank of Kazakhstan as its sole issuer. The package mandates interoperable QR payments and mobile transfers across banks and payment organisations, and allows distribution of the digital tenge through banks and licensed payment firms; importantly, the digital currency will support programmability via smart contracts to enable conditional payments and automated financial services.

The reforms also establish a regulated market for digital financial assets and unbacked cryptocurrencies, permitting licensed providers to operate crypto–fiat exchange channels under supervisory oversight. Authorities frame the measures as steps to increase competition, transparency and consumer protection while accelerating fintech innovation and standardising interactions between citizens, businesses and the state. (No implementation timetable was specified in the text.)

Local Coverage: dknews.kz

From daily brief: 2026-01-17

5. U.S.–Central Asia Summit Deals and New Projects Deepen U.S.–Kazakh Economic Ties

Following President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s 2025 U.S. visits, U.S.–Kazakh economic engagement accelerated with a set of high-value agreements across energy, industry, mining and innovation. New York meetings yielded 11 agreements worth $5.2 billion, and the C5+1 summit in Washington produced 29 deals totaling $17 billion. Key projects include a $1.1 billion joint venture to develop Karaganda tungsten deposits with on-site processing, a $2.5 billion industrial cooperation pact with John Deere and partners to produce at least 3,000 agricultural machines in Kostanay and Turkistan plus a CIS-focused parts hub, and continued energy partnerships with Chevron and ExxonMobil.

The deals also cover battery energy storage system (BESS) manufacturing, AI services and R&D (including work with Perplexity AI), and expanded agricultural genetics and processing cooperation as Kazakhstan seeks to deepen value-added exports after $110.2 million in agri-trade in 2024. Officials framed the accords as strengthening multifaceted U.S. ties and underscoring Kazakhstan’s role in global energy stability, signaling sustained Western private-sector commitment and potential industrialization and supply-chain diversification in Central Asia.

Local Coverage: aikyn.kz

From daily brief: 2026-01-22

6. Government launches expansive three-year subsurface mapping and seismic program with $500 million budget

The government has launched a three-year, 240 billion tenge (≈$500 million) subsurface mapping and seismic program to modernize geological data and stimulate exploration. Beginning with a 100,000 sq km planning phase then moving to detailed 1:50,000-scale mapping of roughly 30,000 sq km per year, the program will implement 20 pre-prepared projects and combine remote sensing, aero‑geophysical and geochemical surveys, extensive fieldwork, laboratory modernization, and digitization of legacy maps (upgrading from Soviet-era 1:200,000 coverage).

Priority targets were chosen for depletion risk, limited operator presence, and resource potential, focusing on copper, gold, lead, zinc, rare earths, barite, and bauxite; seismic surveys will cover underexplored hydrocarbon provinces including North Torgai, Shu‑Sarysu, and Syr Darya. Designed to improve predictive accuracy and lower exploration risk, the initiative follows practices in the EU, Canada, Australia and China and is intended to catalyze private investment in mining and oil & gas over the next three years.

Local Coverage: inform.kz, aikyn.kz, egemen.kz, zakon.kz, dknews.kz

From daily brief: 2026-01-15

7. Presidential Decree Establishes Constitutional Reform Commission Led by Constitutional Court Chair

On 21 January 2026 President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed a decree creating a Presidential Constitutional Reform Commission—an advisory body chaired by Constitutional Court Chair Elvira Azimova with its secretariat in the Court—to draft proposals for wide-ranging amendments to the Basic Law. The Commission includes MPs from both chambers, regional executives and assemblies, judges, ministers, academics, civil society, media and trade unions; the Presidential Administration will oversee implementation and the body will report outcomes directly to the president. The move formalizes a public consultation mechanism after extensive working-group deliberations and some 1,600 submissions via e-Otinish/eGov, and is intended to structure a package of reforms that the president says could require a referendum.

The proposed overhaul, announced at the 5th National Kurultai, would replace the bicameral parliament with a unicameral “Qurultai”/“Kurultai” of 145 deputies elected primarily by proportional lists, create a Vice President (presidential appointment with parliamentary consent), establish a 126‑member People’s Council with legislative initiative, expand Parliament’s role in high‑level appointments, and abolish presidential and Assembly quotas. Proponents frame the changes as clarifying executive hierarchy and strengthening representative institutions; analysts caution that success will depend on precise, transparent constitutional drafting and implementation.

Local Coverage: aikyn.kz, informburo.kz, inform.kz, zakon.kz, malim.kz, dknews.kz, egemen.kz

From daily briefs: 2026-01-16, 2026-01-20, 2026-01-21, 2026-01-22

8. Foreign Ministry Urges Joint Security Measures for Black Sea Oil Shipments Following CPC Attacks

Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry on Jan. 13 called for coordinated international security measures after confirmed drone attacks struck three oil tankers bound for the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) Black Sea terminal and earlier drone-boat strikes on Nov. 29 severely damaged the SPM‑2 offshore loading buoy near Novorossiysk. The ministry stressed Kazakhstan is not a party to any armed conflict, that the targeted tankers had proper permits and navigation equipment, and urged close coordination with European, U.S. and other partners to protect hydrocarbon transport and maritime supply routes under international law.

Analysts and officials warned of serious economic and strategic consequences: CPC carries roughly 80–90% of Kazakhstan’s crude, daily flows are reportedly down about 800,000 barrels with nearly $1 billion in unrealized exports, and viable alternatives (Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan, China routes) lack sufficient capacity. MP Aidos Sarym urged U.S. pressure on Ukraine to halt attacks, while analyst Abzal Narymbetov called for urgent diversification of export corridors and joint preventive measures to shield Western and European energy interests exposed by continued strikes.

Local Coverage: egemen.kz, inform.kz, zakon.kz, malim.kz, dknews.kz

From daily briefs: 2026-01-15, 2026-01-16

9. Carbon Neutrality Target Set for 2060 in National Climate Strategy

The Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources announced a national objective to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, framing climate change as a major risk to environmental and socio-economic stability and sustainable development. While the statement did not include implementation details or named officials, it signals a long-term decarbonization trajectory that will likely drive policy measures across energy, industry and land use.

For international professionals, the 2060 target implies upcoming regulatory shifts—potential introduction of carbon pricing, stricter emissions reporting, and incentives for renewables and efficiency—alongside greater emphasis on adaptation and climate resilience in infrastructure and resource sectors. The ministry’s emphasis on investment in cleaner technologies suggests opportunities and compliance requirements for businesses and investors active in the country.

Local Coverage: inform.kz

From daily brief: 2026-01-17

10. Unified Digital Platform Planned to Curb Shadow Economy, With AI Auditing and Sector Roadmaps Consolidated

The government is consolidating separate sectoral anti–shadow economy roadmaps into a single comprehensive plan and will launch a unified digital platform—built on Smart Data Finance—that links tax, customs, labor and sector datasets to enable AI-driven cross‑verification, value‑chain vulnerability flagging, sector movement monitoring and KPI‑based execution assessment. Authorities reported 2024 reductions in shadow turnover in domestic trade (from 3.54% to 2.97%), education (1.52% to 1.1%) and agriculture (1.88% to 1.73%), bringing the shadow economy’s share of GDP down to 16.71%.

The consolidation complements broader digitization efforts—national product catalog, domestic producers registry, product labeling and tracking, digital tenge, digital VAT and universal e‑invoices—and new wholesale market standards to improve pricing transparency. A detailed, time‑bound plan with concrete digital measures is expected within one month; the integrated, AI‑enabled platform aims to tighten enforcement and improve transparency across sectors, with implications for compliance costs, data governance and cross‑agency coordination for international businesses and regulators.

Local Coverage: dknews.kz, inform.kz

From daily brief: 2026-01-15

About This Weekly Digest

The stories above represent the most significant developments from Kazakhstan this week, selected through our AI-powered analysis of hundreds of local news articles.

Stories are drawn from our daily intelligence briefs, which synthesize reporting from Kazakhstan's leading news sources to provide comprehensive situational awareness for international decision-makers.