Kazakhstan Weekly: Kazakhstan readies presidential address; S&P lifts outlook; Starlink launches

August 22, 2025 to August 28, 2025

This week's top 10 stories from Kazakhstan, selected from our daily intelligence briefs.

1. Presidential Address to the Nation Set for 8 September During Joint Parliamentary Session

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will deliver his annual Address to the Nation on 8 September at a joint session of both chambers of Kazakhstan’s Parliament, presidential press secretary Ruslan Zheldibay confirmed. The Address traditionally sets the administration’s priorities for the year ahead and is expected to guide fiscal policy, privatization plans, state support for industry, governance reforms and social-programme allocations; markets, ministries and lawmakers typically align strategies and accelerate legislative follow‑through in the session that follows.

The timing comes amid recent diplomatic activity, including announcements of an upcoming visit to China, suggesting the speech may emphasize trade, investment and regional cooperation themes that could affect bilateral economic ties. International observers and investors will be watching for concrete signals on budgetary direction, institutional reform measures and sectoral support that could influence Kazakhstan’s policy trajectory and investment climate.

From daily brief: 2025-08-27

2. Environmental Fine Reimposed on NCOC as Government Pursues Wider Claims Over Kashagan Sulfur Storage

Kazakhstan’s Ecology Ministry has reinstated a 2.3 trillion tenge (≈$4.4 billion) environmental fine against North Caspian Operating Company (NCOC) — the consortium of Eni, Shell, ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies — over alleged violations in sulfur storage at the Kashagan offshore oilfield, formally notifying the firms and giving them 40 days to pay and 10 days to appeal. The decision follows an appellate court’s earlier voiding of the penalty on procedural grounds, which NCOC had pointed to as evidence of compliance with Kazakh and international standards.

Separately, the government has launched international arbitration seeking up to $160 billion in wider claims tied to lost revenues, environmental damage and contractual breaches, underscoring heightened enforcement risk for foreign operators at Kashagan, a field valued at roughly $55 billion with estimated reserves of 9–13 billion barrels. The dispute elevates geopolitical and commercial stakes for the consortium and may affect investment, project timelines and investor perceptions of regulatory stability in Kazakhstan’s energy sector.

From daily brief: 2025-08-27

3. Starlink Launches Commercial Service in Kazakhstan with Home and Travel Options

SpaceX’s Starlink began official commercial service in Kazakhstan on 13 August, deploying satellite broadband aimed at underserved rural areas and mobile users. Customers may order equipment via local distributor IEC Telecom Group or Starlink’s website with deliveries in about one to two weeks; two terminals are offered — the portable Starlink Mini for travel/temporary rural use and the higher‑performance, weather‑resilient Starlink Standard for homes and offices. Reported typical speeds are 100–250 Mbps, users can manage activation and plan changes online or via mobile app, and a Roam plan provides connectivity in 100+ countries with a 30‑day trial and refund guarantee.

The rollout dovetails with Kazakhstan’s government objectives to expand connectivity — including plans to extend satellite internet to hundreds of villages by end‑2025 — and signals growing commercialization of low‑Earth‑orbit broadband in Central Asia. For businesses and public agencies, Starlink’s rapid delivery timeline, multiple terminal options, and international roaming capability present options for closing rural digital divides, supporting mobile operations, and improving redundancy for critical communications.

From daily brief: 2025-08-26

4. S&P lifts sovereign outlook to Positive, citing fiscal rules and diversification drive

S&P Global Ratings on [date unspecified] affirmed Kazakhstan’s sovereign rating at BBB- and upgraded the outlook to Positive, citing sustained institutional and economic reforms — notably new Budget and Tax Codes and tighter fiscal rules — that should expand the revenue base and drive fiscal consolidation. The agency expects these measures to narrow deficits and keep public debt stable over the medium term, while highlighting Kazakhstan’s strong external position as a net external creditor supported by low external debt, substantial National Fund assets and FX reserves.

S&P also tied the outlook improvement to continued liberalization and economic diversification efforts, including national infrastructure and modernization plans aimed at reducing oil dependence and boosting non‑oil revenues, and to governance reforms (anti‑corruption steps, decentralization, transparency) that strengthen social consensus. The report assesses secondary‑sanctions risk as low, reinforcing the view that policy momentum and external buffers lower near‑term credit risks.

From daily brief: 2025-08-24

5. Government Accelerates Power Capacity Buildout with 13 Trillion Tenge Investment Plan

Kazakhstan has launched an accelerated power-capacity buildout to close a growing supply gap as industrial demand surges, targeting at least 14 GW of new generation over five years through upgrades, new plants, expanded hydro and renewables and utility-network modernization. Authorities report 1.3 GW added in 2023–24, with 621.5 MW expected in 2025 and 2.65 GW slated for 2025; flagship projects include a combined‑cycle gas plant up to 1,000 MW in Turkistan Region and a 240 MW CHP in Kyzylorda. A major maintenance push next year will overhaul 10 power units, 63 boilers and 39 turbines and upgrade some 86,000 km of networks.

Total investment needs are estimated at about 13 trillion tenge, to be largely mobilized from private finance using tailored investment models for individual enterprises. Current generation (113 billion kWh) still lags consumption (115 billion kWh), underscoring near‑term supply risk for industry. Petrochemical expansion (roughly $15 billion across six projects, including operational polypropylene output and a polyethylene plant due by 2029) and adoption of AI drones and acoustic‑resonance robots to reduce outages reflect a broader push to bolster energy security and industrial competitiveness.

From daily brief: 2025-08-24

6. Twelve International Corridors Bolster Country’s Eurasian Logistics Hub Role

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced that Kazakhstan is now traversed by 12 international transport corridors—five rail and seven road—reinforcing its role as a strategic Eurasian logistics hub linking China, Central Asia, the Caucasus and Europe. The expansion aims to diversify transit routes and is expected to accelerate trade facilitation, drive customs modernization and attract investment in multimodal infrastructure, with knock-on benefits for transit times and cargo throughput across the region.

Tokayev also highlighted untapped bilateral opportunities with Jordan in agribusiness and healthcare, citing Amman’s advanced medical services and pharmaceutical industry as potential areas for joint ventures, technology transfer and training exchanges. Together, the focus on corridor development plus sectoral partnerships signals a coordinated strategy to pair transit growth with expanded export baskets and service quality improvements across Central Asia and neighboring markets.

From daily brief: 2025-08-28

7. Cabinet Approves 2026–2028 Forecast and Budget, Sets 2035 Growth Path with Lower Deficits and Inflation

Kazakhstan’s cabinet has approved the 2026–2028 socio‑economic forecast, a draft three‑year republican budget and a long‑term development outlook to 2035. The plan projects real GDP growth of 5.4% in 2026 and an average 5.3% through 2028, driven by manufacturing, construction, transport and trade; nominal GDP is forecast to rise from KZT 183.8 trillion in 2026 to KZT 229.8 trillion by 2028. Exports are expected to reach $83.7 billion and imports $75.2 billion by 2028, while inflation is seen easing to about 10% in 2026 and roughly 6% in 2027–2028.

The draft budget targets a fiscal consolidation: the overall deficit narrows from 2.5% of GDP in 2026 to 0.9% in 2028, with the non‑oil deficit falling to 2.7%. Annual guaranteed transfers from the National Fund are set at KZT 2.77 trillion and the Fund’s net foreign‑exchange assets are projected to increase to $68.6 billion by 2028. Deputy Prime Minister and National Economy Minister Serik Zhumangarin indicated the budget would be self‑sustaining without additional targeted National Fund transfers, signalling a policy tilt toward tighter fiscal discipline while supporting structural growth through industry and infrastructure.

From daily brief: 2025-08-27

8. Middle Corridor Freight Grows Sixfold with New Rail Links, Port Upgrades, and One-Stop Multimodal JV

Freight volumes on the Trans‑Caspian “Middle Corridor” have grown sixfold in five years, from 0.8 million tonnes in 2020 to 4.5 million tonnes in 2024, with an additional 2.3 million tonnes carried in H1 2025 (+7% y/y). Growth has been driven by coordinated infrastructure and institutional measures: the Dostyk–Moyynty rail line and an Almaty bypass were commissioned, Kuryk’s basin was deepened and truck trans‑Caspian links expanded, and a new Kazakh‑owned multimodal terminal (8.9 ha, 120,000 TEU/year) opened at Poti, Georgia in June 2025.

Operational and commercial enablers are reducing friction: customs automation has cut train clearance to about 30 minutes (from up to three hours), and the 2023 formation of Middle Corridor Multimodal Ltd (Azerbaijan–Georgia–Kazakhstan) provides a one‑stop model with guaranteed tariffs and delivery; China Railway Container Transport is expected to join after a November 2024 memorandum. Together, these upgrades position the corridor as a faster, more reliable Eurasian alternative to northern and southern routes, with implications for modal shift, regional trade patterns and supply‑chain diversification.

From daily brief: 2025-08-23

9. Energy Overhaul Advances with 1.3 GW Added, 14 GW Pipeline, and Accelerated Grid, CHP and Gas Projects

Kazakhstan has accelerated a multi‑year energy overhaul, commissioning 1.3 GW of new power in 2023–2024 and targeting at least 14 GW of capacity additions over five years, with 622 MW expected in 2025 and roughly 2.7 GW in 2026. Flagship thermal projects include a combined‑cycle plant (up to 1,000 MW) in Turkistan and a 240 MW CHP in Kyzylorda; a national modernization program seeks about KZT 13 trillion to rehabilitate assets and upgrade some 86,000 km of networks. Renewables currently total 3,122 MW across 156 assets (6.43% of 2023 generation), with 455 MW of new RE plants planned for 2025 and a 4.8 GW foreign‑investor pipeline under development.

Gas‑security and digitalization measures are advancing in parallel: new processing capacity is planned at Kashagan (1 bcm by 2026), Karachaganak (4 bcm by 2028) and Zhanaozen (900 mcm), while the second string of the Beineu–Bozoy–Shymkent pipeline is underway. AI‑enabled drones and robotic inspection are being deployed at CHP plants to reduce outages and maintenance costs. The combined push — capacity build, network modernization, fuel security and digitization — signals Kazakhstan’s intent to strengthen energy reliability and attract investment, but will require sustained financing and effective project delivery to meet timelines.

From daily brief: 2025-08-22

10. S&P Affirms BBB Rating, Sees Stronger Policy Framework and Slower Growth Ahead

S&P Global Ratings affirmed Kazakhstan’s sovereign rating at BBB (the lowest investment-grade level), citing improving monetary policy credibility and government efforts to curb quasi-fiscal spending. The agency expects the National Bank’s anti‑inflation measures to bolster stability, with banks remaining well‑capitalized and liquid despite geopolitical and economic risks; consumer lending is projected to cool.

S&P also highlighted the National Infrastructure Plan’s rollout as supporting gradual diversification and growth of non‑commodity revenues, forecasting real GDP of 5.5% in 2025 before easing to about 4% in 2026–2028. While noting momentum in liberalization, better public administration and narrower budget deficits that reduce vulnerability, S&P stresses the country’s sensitivity to external downturns remains consistent with a BBB rating.

From daily brief: 2025-08-26