Kazakhstan Weekly: Kazakhstan narrows tax regimes, advances privatization, deepens energy ties

November 20, 2025 to November 26, 2025

This week's top 10 stories from Kazakhstan, selected from our daily intelligence briefs.

1. New Tax Code Narrows Special Regimes and Sets 2026 Deadlines for Simplified Filers

Kazakhstan’s new Tax Code, approved on 18 July 2025 and effective 1 January 2026, sharply reduces special tax regimes from seven to three—retaining only self‑employment, the “new” simplified declaration, and farm (peasant) holdings—and imposes critical transition deadlines for small taxpayers. Individual entrepreneurs who previously used patents or the special mobile app, and taxpayers on simplified declaration or retail tax, must notify authorities by 1 March 2026 to elect the new simplified regime; failure to file will result in deregistration as an individual entrepreneur or automatic migration to the general regime, with re‑entry to simplified status permitted only after one year. The Almaty State Revenue Department has urged timely compliance, noting particular operational impact for taxi drivers, couriers and small retail operators.

Beyond small‑taxpayer changes, the Code introduces broader reforms aimed at boosting transparency and investor confidence: differentiated corporate income tax rates will begin in 2026 (specific bands pending), and rules were updated on withholding at source, permanent establishment definitions, double tax treaty application, transfer pricing, digital services taxation and tighter non‑resident reporting. Business leaders including Dias Asanov (Siemens Kazakhstan) and Eduard Kinsbruner (German Economy Representation in Central Asia) framed the package as a shift from punitive oversight toward facilitation, while advising international firms to seek professional guidance as detailed implementation and sectoral incentives are clarified.

Local Coverage: dknews.kz, zakon.kz, egemen.kz, inform.kz

From daily briefs: 2025-11-20, 2025-11-27

2. Shell Explores Expanded Investment and Technology Deployment in Kazakhstan’s Oil and Gas Sector

Kazakhstan’s First Deputy Prime Minister Roman Sklyar met with Shell’s Senior Vice President and Chair in Kazakhstan, Suzanne Kuegane, in Astana to discuss deepening long‑term cooperation and potential new investments in the country’s oil and gas sector. Officials highlighted Shell’s 30‑year involvement in major projects such as Karachaganak and Kashagan and said the company is interested in investing in new projects and deploying advanced technologies to expand reserves and improve upstream project execution.

The talks emphasized accelerating joint project development and technology transfer to modernize Kazakhstan’s upstream operations, with both sides expressing confidence in broadening mutually beneficial ties. For international energy and investment professionals, the development signals continued attraction of global majors to Kazakhstan’s hydrocarbon assets and potential opportunities for technology partnerships and expanded capital flows into reserve‑enhancement and execution‑efficiency initiatives.

Local Coverage: dknews.kz

From daily brief: 2025-11-26

3. Privatization Drive Launches with 473 State Assets Listed and New Digital Portal

Kazakhstan’s newly formed National Privatization Office, established by presidential decree on May 28, 2024 as part of an economic liberalization drive, has published an approved list of 473 state entities slated for sale and launched an online registry that allows businesses to submit expressions of interest and initiate transactions—excluding assets legally barred from privatization. The office said it will review more than 250 companies in a 2026 assessment of the state’s role across IT, social-entrepreneurship corporations (SECs), geology, oilfield services and construction, and will analyze enterprises where state ownership is below 50%.

Over the next two years the office will coordinate with ministries to prepare roadmaps for both social and strategic assets; its membership includes senior officials, MPs, representatives of quasi-state entities, experts and the Atameken business chamber. For international investors and policy watchers, the move signals a structured, multi-year push to reduce direct state involvement in key sectors and create transparent channels for transactions, although the registry still respects legal limits on privatization.

Local Coverage: egemen.kz

From daily brief: 2025-11-25

4. Trade Deals Top $500M as Nuclear Plant Timeline Set and AI Law Enacted; Potato Exports May Be Curbed

Kazakhstan announced a string of policy and investment moves that signal a coordinated push to attract capital, secure energy supply, and tighten technology and food-market governance. Bilateral agreements with Estonia exceeded $500 million, expanding digital, logistics and investment cooperation; construction of the country’s first nuclear power plant is scheduled to begin in 2029 to diversify the energy mix; and the new “Law on Artificial Intelligence” has come into force, creating a regulatory framework that will shape data governance and AI deployment across sectors.

Domestic stability measures were also flagged: authorities warned they may curb potato exports to stabilize local supplies and prices. Taken together—$500M+ in Estonia deals, a 2029 nuclear start date, formal AI legislation, and potential agricultural export controls—these steps point to an agenda balancing foreign investment and long‑term infrastructure with short‑term price stability and strengthened tech oversight.

Local Coverage: inform.kz

From daily brief: 2025-11-23

5. Baiterek Holding to Become National Investment Vehicle with Expanded Mandate

Kazakhstan has approved a major overhaul of state-owned Baiterek into the Baiterek National Managing Holding with an expanded mandate to channel finance, expertise and technology into priority sectors. The board endorsed a 2026 work plan that updates investment policy, strengthens corporate governance, scales subsidiary investment activity and introduces KPIs focused on foreign capital attraction and AI-assisted SME support; risk and anti‑corruption reporting frameworks were also confirmed. Under a joint 2026–2028 program with the National Bank and the financial regulator, the holding will act as a primary financing conduit for the real sector through co‑lending with second‑tier banks. The government plans a KZT 1 trillion capital injection in 2026, while Baiterek aims to mobilize up to KZT 7 trillion annually from domestic and external markets; to date it has provided KZT 5.7 trillion in support and helped create 29,000 jobs.

Operationally, Baiterek will prioritize 15–20 large, high‑multiplier projects in mining and metallurgy, machinery, petrochemicals, chemicals, energy, tourism and food processing, and accelerate deep processing in agribusiness to raise processed output to 70%. A unified “investment window” will centralize project selection, structuring, investor attraction and execution oversight, while SME support will expand via credit guarantees, targeted import‑substitution financing and options to fund export projects in foreign currency. Authorities frame the reform as a tool to boost import substitution, increase non‑commodity exports and launch higher‑productivity enterprises and jobs; Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov said the holding must become “an effective mechanism to attract large investors bringing finance, competencies, and new technologies.”

Local Coverage: malim.kz, inform.kz, egemen.kz, dknews.kz, zakon.kz

From daily briefs: 2025-11-22, 2025-11-27

6. Three-Year Stabilization Plan Seeks Quality Growth, Lower Inflation, and Import Substitution

The government has launched a three‑year “Microeconomic Stabilization and Improving Public Welfare” program (2026–2028) to shift from headline GDP expansion to quality growth, reduce import dependence, and align incomes with output. Building on new budget and tax codes and a reoriented Baiterek Holding, the plan targets at least 5% annual GDP growth, 2–3% real income gains per year, and a reduction in state participation by financing 17 high‑value technology projects plus roughly 100 agricultural projects annually to create higher‑paying jobs and raise non‑commodity exports. Policymakers also approved a Joint Action Program with the National Bank and financial regulator to curb persistent inflation (12.6% in October), tighten consumer‑credit risks, keep monetary policy moderately tight (base rate raised to 18% on 10 October), and use FX interventions and a new Debt Management Office to stabilize markets.

The program emphasizes structural measures—deepening credit to the real sector, tariff and subsidy tools (including fuel balance oversight and forward contracts for food), digitization and AI, and expanded use of a digital tenge for social payments—to lower inflation toward a 5–7% objective by 2028 and narrow the growth‑income gap highlighted by economists. Experts warned that non‑supergiant oil output has fallen about 35% over three years, underscoring a 3–5‑year window for diversification; banks must raise additional capital by April 2026 and consumer‑finance products (BNPL, instalments) will face new regulation to rein in demand‑driven price pressures.

Local Coverage: aikyn.kz, inform.kz, dknews.kz, egemen.kz, informburo.kz, malim.kz, zakon.kz

From daily briefs: 2025-11-20, 2025-11-25

7. Government Approves Digital Qazaqstan Model to Accelerate AI-Led Transformation

Kazakhstan’s government, led by Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov, has approved an implementation model for “Digital Qazaqstan,” a nationwide AI- and digitalization-led strategy to be executed by a forthcoming Digital Transformation Commission. The model establishes strategic and operational governance around national “icebreaker” projects with KPIs and deadlines across ten pillars—digital public services; healthcare; education and labor market; digital economy; data; cybersecurity; robotics; digital infrastructure; regulation; and the startup ecosystem—and aims to accelerate growth through automation, faster government decision-making, and creation of new high‑tech sectors and STEM talent.

Education pilots include an “AI‑based interactive learning” program featuring an AI University, expansion of the Tomorrow-school and GPT Education initiatives, and a student AI curriculum intended to boost digital literacy and PISA performance. Officials cited recent measurable gains—increased e‑commerce share, cashless payments, wider internet coverage, higher EGDI ranking, and growing startup funding—as the rationale for scaling up; the commission will convert these objectives into time‑bound KPIs to track productivity and economic outcomes.

Local Coverage: dknews.kz

From daily brief: 2025-11-27

8. IMF Mission Endorses Banking Stability and Outlines Path to Sustain High Growth

An IMF mission concluding Article IV consultations endorsed the resilience of the country’s banking sector, noting that second-tier banks exhibit strong capital, liquidity and profitability with low nonperforming loans, and praised regulators’ prudential measures to rein in fast-rising consumer lending and progress on FSAP recommendations. The mission set near-term priorities including adoption of a new resolution framework for insolvent banks, formal supervision of digital assets under a revised banking law, and capacity strengthening for the financial regulator.

On macroeconomic policy, the IMF projects real GDP could exceed 6% in 2025 and stabilize around 4.5% in 2026, while warning of persistent inflation risks from robust activity and upcoming VAT and utility tariff increases; it supports the National Bank’s anti‑inflation stance and a coordinated 2026–2028 policy program. The mission also urged broader structural reforms—fiscal discipline, a smaller state footprint and improved competition—to diversify beyond hydrocarbons and sustain durable growth.

Local Coverage: dknews.kz, dknews.kz

From daily brief: 2025-11-22

9. Government Shifts to Quality-Focused Growth Model Emphasizing Productivity Gains

The government announced a shift from headline GDP growth toward a quality‑focused development model that decomposes potential GDP into components—human capital, fixed investment, natural resources, labor productivity and technology—to identify where policy should target gains. Officials singled out total factor productivity (TFP) as the main engine of growth, noting data show efficiency and technological progress drove expansion between 2001 and 2024; Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin said the strategy will prioritize labor productivity, quality employment and higher technological levels of capital to strengthen long‑term productive capacity and narrow the gap between GDP growth and wage increases.

For international businesses and investors, the move signals policy emphasis on productivity‑enhancing reforms and technology adoption rather than stimulus for headline output, implying potential shifts in investment incentives (toward human capital, R&D and higher‑tech fixed capital) and tighter labor‑market measures to raise wage alignment with productivity.

Local Coverage: egemen.kz

From daily brief: 2025-11-20

10. Construction Advances on Bakhte–Ayagoz Rail Border Crossing to Boost China Trade Flows

Kazakhstan has advanced construction on its third rail border crossing with China at the Bakhte–Ayagoz route, launched by government decree on July 21, 2025, to relieve pressure on existing corridors and strengthen export-import and transit reliability. Officials from the Prime Minister’s office, the Transport Ministry and state operator Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ) inspected 42 km of active works where China Harbour Engineering Company Ltd. is the main contractor; 120 machines and 272 workers are currently handling earthworks (517,972 m³ completed), foundations, fencing, utilities, access roads and camps.

Design and survey activities continue, with full project documentation due by end‑Q1 2026 and state expertise approval targeted for April 6, 2026. Winter priorities include finishing design packages and launching tenders for local contractors; surface construction is scheduled for completion by December 31, 2027. Once operational, the crossing is expected to expand capacity on the China corridor and improve transit reliability under close government oversight.

Local Coverage: dknews.kz

From daily brief: 2025-11-20

About This Weekly Digest

The stories above represent the most significant developments from Kazakhstan this week, selected through our AI-powered analysis of hundreds of local news articles.

Stories are drawn from our daily intelligence briefs, which synthesize reporting from Kazakhstan's leading news sources to provide comprehensive situational awareness for international decision-makers.