Kazakhstan Weekly: Kazakhstan enacts 2026 tax/social reforms, advances legal overhaul; EU opens visa talks

December 25, 2025 to December 31, 2025

This week's top 10 stories from Kazakhstan, selected from our daily intelligence briefs.

1. Tax Overhaul, New Social Benchmarks and Compliance Rules Take Effect on January 1, 2026

Effective January 1, 2026 Kazakhstan implements a broad tax and compliance overhaul: VAT rises from 12% to 16% while the mandatory VAT registration threshold increases from KZT 15 million to KZT 40 million; essential services (guaranteed free medical care, mandatory health insurance services, domestic print books) are VAT-exempt. Corporate income tax remains 20% generally but increases to 25% for banks (excluding SME lending) and gambling; social-sector entities face a reduced 5% rate in 2026 rising to 10% in 2027, and agriculture retains 3%. Personal income tax stays at 10% up to 8,500 MCI (~KZT 33.5 million) then 15%; dividends are taxed 5% up to 230,000 MCI (~KZT 995 million) then 15%. The monthly calculation index (MCI) rises to KZT 4,325, triggering pension indexing, higher fines and fees, and raised thresholds for bank-account freezes for tax arrears (no freeze below KZT 87,000; partial restrictions KZT 87,000–195,000; stricter measures above KZT 195,000).

Policy changes also tighten monitoring and compliance—transfers to an account will be flagged as business income if, over three months, funds come from 100+ senders and exceed 12 minimum wages (~KZT 1.02 million)—and expand social protections (up to six months MHI coverage after five years’ contributions; diabetes care fully covered). Deputy PM Serik Zhumangarin frames the reform as anti-shadow-economy modernization while the government trimmed proposed restrictions on special tax regimes from nearly 795 activities to 44 to protect SMEs. The National Bank warns the VAT hike could temporarily accelerate inflation (estimated one-off price rise ~3.6% and short-term 2–3% impact), and business groups caution that price caps on 33 staples could imperil small retailers.

Local Coverage: egemen.kz

From daily briefs: 2025-12-25, 2025-12-30

2. Year of Structural Shifts: Unicameral Parliament Proposal, New Tax Code, Criminal Law Changes and LRT Tests Define 2025

In 2025 Kazakhstan undertook major structural reforms and high‑profile projects that signal a shift in governance and fiscal policy. President Kassym‑Jomart Tokayev proposed replacing the bicameral legislature with a unicameral parliament elected by full party lists; the proposal entered a year of public debate and is slated for a referendum in 2027. A new Tax Code signed on 18 July will take effect in 2026, raising VAT to 16%, keeping reduced rates for medicines, exempting pension payouts from income tax, and introducing a “wealth tax” expected to raise an additional ₸3–5 trillion. Criminal law changes added a specific offense for forced marriage (penalties of 7–10 years’ imprisonment) and introduced stalking as a punishable crime; the Senate also approved legislation restricting LGBT “propaganda” on child‑protection grounds, now awaiting presidential signature.

Major infrastructure and geopolitical developments proceeded alongside these policy shifts. Construction began on the Balkhash nuclear power plant with Russian state firm Rosatom as lead contractor while Kazakhstan retains ownership, and Astana’s light‑rail transit (LRT) system started automated test runs ahead of a planned 2026 opening. The year also featured international cultural engagement, including a visit by Real Madrid and concerts by Jennifer Lopez and the Backstreet Boys, underscoring Kazakhstan’s push to raise its global profile amid domestic reform.

Local Coverage: informburo.kz

From daily brief: 2025-12-31

3. Comprehensive Legal Overhaul Advances Financial, Digital, Tax, and Governance Reforms for 2026 Rollout

A sweeping legal reform package set for partial implementation in 2026 overhauls banking, digital, tax, construction, water, social protection, land/housing and political governance. Key financial measures include a new banking law requiring biometric ID for online loans, limiting multiple borrowings within a single hour, mandating banks retain biometric checks, accelerating out‑of‑court bankruptcy procedures and tightening oversight of crypto exchanges. Digital reforms introduce a Digital Code and an AI law that standardize data governance and cybersecurity, require labeling of AI‑generated content, mandate algorithmic transparency in public services, and ban discriminatory AI decisions — with core AI provisions effective in 2026. A Construction Code will enforce BIM‑based design, and a revised Water Code guarantees free public access to shorelines.

The 2025 Tax Code raises VAT from 12% to 16% beginning in 2026 while immediately exempting pensions from income tax, lowering vehicle tax for older cars and reducing parking fines. Other notable measures increase penalties for assaults on medical staff, create community‑service alternatives for some offenses, restrict certain media content, adjust housing governance by reinstating “KSK,” permit private ownership of existing sites in national parks, and propose replacing the current parliament with a unicameral body subject to a 2026 referendum. Collectively, the package signals a rapid regulatory tightening across digital finance, consumer protection and public governance, with material fiscal impacts (notably the 4 percentage‑point VAT rise) that international businesses and investors should factor into 2026 planning.

Local Coverage: egemen.kz

From daily brief: 2025-12-30

4. EU Opens Talks with Kazakhstan on Visa Facilitation and Readmission Agreements

The European Union and Kazakhstan formally opened negotiations on a visa facilitation and readmission agreement in Brussels on 2 December 2025, the first such initiative between the EU and a Central Asian state. Kazakhstan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Älibek Bakaev and EU Ambassador Aleška Simkič framed the talks as a step toward deeper trust, expanded mobility and stronger humanitarian and societal links; the deal aims to simplify short‑stay visa procedures for eligible Kazakh citizens while creating mechanisms to return individuals who do not meet entry or stay conditions.

Negotiations will continue in Astana in 2026, signalling sustained political commitment on both sides to advance people‑to‑people ties and regulatory alignment on travel and migration management. For international stakeholders, progress could reduce administrative barriers for business and civil society exchanges, while raising operational and legal considerations around readmission procedures and capacity for returns.

Local Coverage: dknews.kz

From daily brief: 2025-12-25

5. Incentives Narrow Rural Doctor Shortage as Hundreds Take Posts

Government incentives to place young medical staff in rural areas have substantially narrowed staffing gaps, authorities report: overall doctor shortages fell 20%, mid-level medical-staff shortages fell 7%, and rural doctor deficits fell 16% after targeted support measures. In the first 10 months of the year, 298 doctors accepted rural assignments and each received at least 100 minimum wages (about 8.5 million tenge); 596 healthcare workers benefited from housing support through low‑interest loans and other assistance.

The package of lump‑sum relocation payments, salary supplements, housing loans and broader social support appears to be accelerating recruitment—by surpassing the 2024 intake of 254 rural doctors within the same timeframe—aiming to stabilize primary‑care access and narrow urban–rural service disparities. For international health planners, the results suggest that coordinated financial and social incentives can rapidly improve rural staffing levels, though follow‑up is needed to assess retention and long‑term service quality.

Local Coverage: egemen.kz

From daily brief: 2025-12-25

6. U.S.-Backed SMR Training Simulator and Feasibility Study Launch in Almaty

The United States and Kazakhstan have launched a joint initiative to strengthen regional capacity for small modular reactor (SMR) deployment by installing a classroom SMR simulator at the Institute of Nuclear Physics in Almaty. Supplied by Holtec International and WSC Inc. and implemented by the International Science and Technology Center (ISTC), the simulator is intended to serve as a Central Asia training hub to build workforce skills and ensure SMR deployment aligns with international nonproliferation and safety standards.

Concurrently, the U.S. FIRST program—working with engineering firm Sargent & Lundy—has begun a feasibility study to identify U.S. SMR designs and potential sites in Kazakhstan; Kazakhstan has been a FIRST partner since 2022, the program’s first Central Asian participant. Together these steps create a structured pathway for introducing U.S. SMR technologies, deepen bilateral technical cooperation, and could accelerate Kazakhstan’s nuclear energy development under rigorous safeguards and safety norms.

Local Coverage: egemen.kz

From daily brief: 2025-12-30

7. National Security Committee Gains Oversight of Critical ICT Infrastructure Cybersecurity

Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has signed an immediate decree transferring state oversight of cybersecurity for critical information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure from the Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development to the National Security Committee (NSC). The NSC becomes the legal successor to the ministry’s related rights and obligations; the government and NSC were ordered to draft necessary legislative amendments and carry out the transfer while the Presidential Administration monitors enforcement. The NSC also must submit updates to its charter for presidential review.

The move consolidates cybersecurity governance under national security structures and signals a shift toward tighter, centralized control of protection for vital ICT assets nationwide. For international stakeholders and partners, the change may affect coordination channels, regulatory responsibilities, and information-sharing practices with Kazakhstan’s state cybersecurity authorities.

Local Coverage: dknews.kz

From daily brief: 2025-12-26

8. GDP Tops $300 Billion as 185 Projects Launch and Transport, AI Initiatives Accelerate in 2025

Kazakhstan’s economy is poised for its strongest performance in a decade in 2025, with GDP surpassing $300 billion and per‑capita output reaching $15,000, as announced by Presidential Press Secretary Ruslan Zheldibay. Authorities reported 185 projects worth KZT 1.48 trillion launched this year, creating 22,800 permanent jobs and expected to produce nearly KZT 2.3 trillion at full capacity. Fixed‑asset investment rose to about KZT 18.5 trillion (January–November, +~13% y/y), private investment grew ~10%, and agriculture investment increased 20% to KZT 790 billion; grain harvest reached 27 million tons and concessional lending topped KZT 1 trillion. The real economy added 33 new plants and upgraded ~150 facilities, while average nominal wages rose 11.3% y/y in Q2 to KZT 448,620.

Policy and structural shifts underpinning growth include major transport upgrades (second Dostyk–Moyynty rail line, new Darbaza–Maktaaral and Bakty–Ayagoz links, 124 station upgrades, 13,000 km of road works including 1,900 km of new highways), expanded air links (first direct flights to Shanghai, Guangzhou and Munich) and new airports at Zaysan, Katonkaragai and Kendirli. Digital strategy advanced with a new AI law, creation of a Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development, and two national supercomputers entering the TOP‑500. Economist Bauyrzhan Iskakov cautioned that despite preserved macro stability and easing inflation, structural diversification remains limited—mining and construction still dominate—and the National Bank’s recent rate rise to 18% is already dampening credit, consumption and investment, which could slow activity going forward.

Local Coverage: aikyn.kz, informburo.kz, zakon.kz, egemen.kz, dknews.kz, malim.kz

From daily briefs: 2025-12-25, 2025-12-30, 2025-12-31

9. Security Council Session Orders Comprehensive Plan to Bolster National Power System

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev chaired a Security Council session ordering a comprehensive plan to strengthen the resilience of the national energy system, with Energy Minister Erlan Akkhenzhenov and Water Resources and Irrigation Minister Nurzhan Nurzhigitov briefing on supply/demand trends and infrastructure gaps. The plan prioritizes flexible domestic generation, expansion of gas-fired capacity, deployment of energy storage, and greater hydropower use, coupled with water‑saving technologies across agriculture and industry, upgraded hydropower research and workforce training, and coordinated investment planning and modern grid management to secure system stability.

Concurrently, Tokayev used an Astana city development council to set a multi‑year urban agenda—accelerating the 2035 transport plan, expanding bus fleets, rapidly launching and extending light rail, building grade‑separated interchanges and considering a new airport—and to fast‑track utilities upgrades (new substations, a second wastewater treatment line, water mains and filtration projects). These moves form part of the 2025–2029 National Project on Modernizing Energy and Utility Sectors, which targets rehabilitation of heat, power, water and wastewater systems, addition of 18.2 GW of capacity, and full metering/automation; tariff reform is cited as a financing lever. Tokayev framed stable water and energy supply for Astana and rapid urbanization more broadly as matters of national security.

Local Coverage: inform.kz, zakon.kz, aikyn.kz, egemen.kz, malim.kz, dknews.kz

From daily briefs: 2025-12-25, 2025-12-30

10. Tighter Monetary Policy, Digital Tenge Rollout and Unified QR Mark a Reshaped Financial Landscape

Kazakhstan tightened monetary policy as inflation surged from 8.9% at the start of the year to 12.4% by year-end, prompting the National Bank to raise the base rate to 18% in October. The tenge experienced significant volatility — trading around 497 per USD in spring, weakening to 550 in summer, then recovering to near 500 after a US$125 million FX intervention — underscoring continued external and policy-driven pressures on the exchange rate.

Simultaneously the authorities accelerated financial digitalization and sector growth: the digital tenge was put into circulation and reached KZT 257.5 billion by July, being deployed in about 100 major infrastructure projects; VAT refunds were compressed from 75 to 5 days; and a nationwide unified QR payments system launched with leading banks participating and full rollout targeted for 2026. The banking sector expanded with the openings of BNK Commercial Bank and KMF Bank as sector assets rose to KZT 67.8 trillion and loans to KZT 42.1 trillion. Fiscal debate sharpened over tax reform and drawing on the National Fund to cover persistent budget gaps, highlighting tensions between short-term support and medium-term sustainability.

Local Coverage: egemen.kz

From daily brief: 2026-01-01

About This Weekly Digest

The stories above represent the most significant developments from Kazakhstan this week, selected through our AI-powered analysis of hundreds of local news articles.

Stories are drawn from our daily intelligence briefs, which synthesize reporting from Kazakhstan's leading news sources to provide comprehensive situational awareness for international decision-makers.