Kazakhstan Weekly: Kazakhstan elevates Russia ties, deepens US/C5+1 links, inks critical minerals deals

November 6, 2025 to November 12, 2025

This week's top 10 stories from Kazakhstan, selected from our daily intelligence briefs.

1. Astana and Moscow Elevate Ties to Alliance Level with New Declaration and 13 Sector Deals

During a state visit to Moscow on November 11–12, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin signed a joint declaration upgrading bilateral ties to a “comprehensive strategic partnership and alliance” and sealed 13 intergovernmental and agency agreements covering trade, logistics, energy, space, education, health and border infrastructure. The package includes a 2026–2030 economic cooperation programme, joint rail transit for third‑country exports, trials of the Soyuz‑5/Baiterek rocket at Baikonur, a new Russian consulate in Aktau, and plans to modernize road checkpoints and rail junctions through 2030; Tokayev set an ambition to raise two‑way trade to $30 billion (from about $28 billion in 2023).

For international businesses and regional policymakers the accords signal accelerated operational alignment between Moscow and Astana: clearer frameworks for transport corridors (North–South, Trans‑Caspian, Western Europe–Western China), expanded energy cooperation including work with Rosatom on Kazakhstan’s first nuclear plant, and institutional follow‑through by ministries and parliaments. The leaders framed the move as foundational for Eurasian security and sustained high‑level dialogue, with a reciprocal state visit to Kazakhstan planned for 2025 and immediate ministry‑level implementation expected in the coming months.

Local Coverage: informburo.kz, inform.kz, zakon.kz, egemen.kz, aikyn.kz, malim.kz, dknews.kz

From daily briefs: 2025-11-11, 2025-11-12, 2025-11-13

2. VAT Rate Rises to 16% in 2026 with Lower Registration Threshold and New Regimes Defined

Kazakhstan’s new Tax Code, effective 1 January 2026, substantially tightens VAT rules and eases some short‑term liquidity constraints for smaller taxpayers. VAT rises from 12% to 16% and the mandatory registration threshold falls from 73.8 million tenge to 10,000 MCI (≈40 million tenge), substantially expanding the population of liable businesses while preserving voluntary registration. The current seven special tax regimes are consolidated into three (self‑employed; simplified declaration for B2C micro/small firms such as corner shops, salons and repair services; and peasant/farmer households) — none of which may be VAT payers — forcing firms that wish to stay on simplified regimes to deregister by end‑2025 and file Q4 2025 VAT returns by 16 Feb 2026; all others must migrate to the general regime and notify authorities by 1 Mar 2026. Registration, deregistration and filings will be digital, and a temporary “soft control” may block e‑invoice issuance for violations or unverified addresses.

The Code also seeks to improve cash flow and export support: streamlined VAT refunds for exporters are planned from 2026, and taxpayers with liabilities below 1,500 MCI (≈KZT 5.8m) may reschedule payments without collateral, with applications processed in 10 working days (down from 20) and deferral options up to three years (excluding payroll PIT, excise, EAEU import VAT and certain state payments). International firms and in‑country operators should assess system and contract impacts, update invoicing/e‑reporting workflows for the digital transition, and review eligibility and timing for regime changes before the 2026 effective date.

Local Coverage: informburo.kz, zakon.kz, inform.kz

From daily briefs: 2025-11-06, 2025-11-11, 2025-11-12

3. C5+1 Summit Deepens US Ties with Central Asia as Astana Seals $17B in Deals and Joins Abraham Accords

At a C5+1 leaders’ summit in Washington during President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s state visit, Kazakhstan and U.S. partners sealed roughly $17.2 billion in commercial agreements across energy, critical minerals, transport, finance, AI and education, while the U.S. reaffirmed its position as Kazakhstan’s largest investor (over $100 billion cumulative FDI). Highlights include a $4.2 billion Wabtec–Kazakhstan Temir Zholy locomotive deal, Kazatomprom’s continued role supplying about 25% of U.S. uranium needs, and new frameworks with Cerberus, Brookfield, Ashmore and Visa to expand asset management and digital payments; U.S.–Central Asia trade has roughly doubled toward $5 billion and U.S. companies total some 600 in Kazakhstan.

Beyond dealmaking, the summit signals a strategic U.S. push to diversify critical-mineral supply chains away from China and deepen regional connectivity via the Trans‑Caspian “Middle Corridor.” Tokayev endorsed U.S. initiatives including TRIPP and—pending late‑stage negotiations—confirmed Kazakhstan’s intent to join the Abraham Accords, underscoring Astana’s bid to broaden diplomatic and economic ties. Analysts see the upgraded presidential C5+1 format as a vehicle for accelerating investment, technology transfer and logistics projects that could reshape regional supply chains and balance external influence in Central Asia.

Local Coverage: aikyn.kz, egemen.kz, inform.kz, dknews.kz, informburo.kz

From daily briefs: 2025-11-06, 2025-11-07, 2025-11-08, 2025-11-09

4. MoU Sets U.S.–Kazakh Partnership on Critical Minerals Extraction and Processing

The United States and Kazakhstan signed a memorandum of understanding to deepen cooperation on critical minerals extraction and processing in a ceremony attended by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. The MoU, signed by Kazakhstan’s Minister of Industry and Construction Ersaiyn Nagaspaev and U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, targets collaboration across exploration, production and processing of inputs for clean energy and advanced manufacturing; specific terms were not disclosed. The agreement signals intent to align supply chains with the U.S., potentially diversifying Kazakhstan’s export routes, enabling technology transfer and investment in processing capacity, and positioning Kazakhstan as a regional hub should follow-on deals address financing, environmental and workforce standards.

Execution depends on project-level contracts, infrastructure readiness and regulatory clarity on licensing and ESG compliance; Washington is reportedly preparing parallel agreements with Uzbekistan. A Washington-based analyst indicates forthcoming US–Kazakhstan talks may raise the 25% tariff as a key agenda item — a development that would materially affect trade terms for metals and mineral inputs and could influence investment conditions, export pathways and compliance expectations for Central Asian producers linked to U.S. supply chains.

Local Coverage: inform.kz, zakon.kz, aikyn.kz, dknews.kz, egemen.kz

From daily brief: 2025-11-07

5. $17B in US Deals, Belarus Industrial Roadmaps, and New Astana–Belgrade Route Mark Busy Week

In the first week of November Kazakhstan drew global attention with more than $17 billion in agreements signed with the United States, spanning energy, infrastructure and technology sectors and signaling deeper US commercial engagement in the region. At the same time Astana approved bilateral industrial and trade roadmaps with Belarus aimed at expanding joint manufacturing and supply‑chain links—likely near‑term projects in machinery and industrial goods—and extended livestock export restrictions to manage biosecurity and market stability.

Connectivity and commercial ties also advanced: a new direct air route between Astana and Belgrade launched, enhancing Central Asia–Balkans travel, tourism and business links. Taken together, these moves reflect a dual strategy of attracting large‑scale foreign investment while tightening targeted sectoral controls to protect domestic markets, with implications for regional trade patterns and cross‑border industrial cooperation.

Local Coverage: inform.kz

From daily brief: 2025-11-09

6. Gazprom to Process Karachaganak Gas at Orenburg Plant Through 2050 After Price Revision

Gazprom and Kazakhstan have agreed to extend processing of associated gas from the Karachaganak field at Russia’s Orenburg gas processing plant through 2050, with a negotiated increase in the processing fee, QazaqGaz said. Announced by QazaqGaz Chairman Alibek Zhamauov at a Samruk‑Kazyna Public Council meeting, the deal secures a long‑term outlet for Karachaganak’s condensate‑rich gas using existing cross‑border infrastructure and underpins stable condensate production at one of Kazakhstan’s largest fields.

The extension reinforces the interdependence between Kazakhstan’s upstream sector and Russian midstream capacity, with implications for export flows, domestic gas planning and the economics of the Karachaganak Petroleum Operating consortium. The price revision will affect project returns and could shape future negotiations over transit and processing capacities, altering regional gas value‑chain bargaining dynamics through mid‑century.

Local Coverage: inform.kz

From daily brief: 2025-11-08

7. OFAC and Energy Ministry Discuss Reducing Sanctions Spillover and Coordinating Cooperation

Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Erlan Akkenzhenov met in Washington with Bradley Smith, director of the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), to address the indirect effects of U.S. sanctions on Kazakhstan’s economy and improve practical coordination under existing restrictions. The discussions—aimed at reducing compliance risk for energy and related sectors while preserving lawful trade and financial flows—produced an agreement to sustain a pragmatic, trust-based dialogue and hold regular consultations, though no specific policy changes were announced.

For international energy and finance professionals, regularized engagement with OFAC signals a move to clarify sanctions boundaries and provide ongoing technical guidance, which could reduce transaction delays and overcompliance by Kazakh firms and foreign partners. The initiative is procedural rather than substantive for now, but the commitment to structured consultations establishes a channel for risk mitigation in cross-border operations.

Local Coverage: inform.kz, dknews.kz

From daily brief: 2025-11-07

8. First Nuclear Plant Project Launches with Rosatom-Led Consortium; Workforce and Training Drive Outlined

Kazakhstan has begun construction of its first nuclear power plant with an international consortium led by Russia’s Rosatom, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced via video link to the XXI Kazakhstan–Russia Interregional Forum. The project will mobilize roughly 6,000 construction workers and more than 3,000 mid‑level specialists, and Tokayev emphasized that developing nuclear‑specific human capital is “of paramount importance,” citing steps such as opening a branch of Russia’s National Research Nuclear University MEPhI at Al‑Farabi KazNU to build an operations-and‑maintenance workforce.

Tokayev, writing in Rossiyskaya Gazeta, framed the plant as a stepping stone toward a full nuclear fuel‑cycle capability—moving beyond uranium mining and fabrication toward enrichment and fuel management—though the announcement did not disclose technology choice, financing or a construction timeline. The move signals Kazakhstan’s strategic push to deepen energy security, develop higher‑value nuclear services, and expand regional cooperation with Russian partners on skills and technology transfer.

Local Coverage: aikyn.kz, inform.kz, zakon.kz

From daily briefs: 2025-11-12, 2025-11-13

9. Presidential Decree Sets Principles and Priorities for Domestic Policy, Coordinating State Outreach and Identity Agenda

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev on [date not specified in reporting] signed a presidential decree that codifies the guiding principles, values and priority directions of Kazakhstan’s domestic policy. Developed following deliberations at the National Kurultai and aligned with Tokayev’s annual addresses and the 2029 national development plan, the framework standardizes coordination among ministries, local administrations and the Presidential Administration on public dialogue, interethnic relations, religion, culture, family and youth policy, and information. It articulates governance tenets — rule of law, a “listening state,” an institutional balance described as “Strong President – Influential Parliament – Accountable Government,” civic integrity and a “Clean Kazakhstan” ethos — and establishes a system of national symbols to strengthen identity.

Officials present the document as an organizing blueprint rather than new legislation, signaling tighter central coordination and expanded roles for the Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan, the National Kurultai, public councils and NGOs in implementing the agenda. State Counsellor Erlan Karin described the decree as systematizing the country’s internal policy and defining its ideological orientation, and MP/National Kurultai member Erlan Sairov said it will underpin how public authorities organize domestic policy work. The move indicates a drive to institutionalize identity and social cohesion priorities ahead of Kazakhstan’s medium‑term 2029 development targets.

Local Coverage: inform.kz, aikyn.kz, aikyn.kz, inform.kz, zakon.kz, dknews.kz, egemen.kz, informburo.kz, malim.kz, aikyn.kz

From daily brief: 2025-11-06

10. Sovereign AI Hub Planned with NVIDIA Infrastructure and $2 Billion Investment

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development and Freedom Holding Corp. announced a phased plan to build a sovereign AI hub powered by NVIDIA’s exascale-class infrastructure, backed by a planned $2 billion investment and a 100 MW site. Freedom Holding will be lead investor and operator while the Ministry will facilitate deployment conditions and support an AI academy and research lab to develop local talent; officials frame the project as a foundation for a national AI ecosystem serving Kazakhstan and Central Asia.

The initiative signals a strategic push for compute sovereignty and skills pipelines to boost competitiveness and digital-economy growth in the region. By pairing NVIDIA hardware with a government-supported talent and research program, the hub aims to position Kazakhstan as a regional AI leader, attract investment and retain data- and compute-intensive workloads—but its success will depend on execution, timelines, and the ability to scale workforce and regulatory frameworks.

Local Coverage: aikyn.kz, dknews.kz, egemen.kz

From daily briefs: 2025-11-08, 2025-11-09

About This Weekly Digest

The stories above represent the most significant developments from Kazakhstan this week, selected through our AI-powered analysis of hundreds of local news articles.

Stories are drawn from our daily intelligence briefs, which synthesize reporting from Kazakhstan's leading news sources to provide comprehensive situational awareness for international decision-makers.