Kazakhstan Weekly: Kazakhstan curbs inflation, navigates EU sanctions, reshuffles leadership

October 17, 2025 to October 23, 2025

This week's top 10 stories from Kazakhstan, selected from our daily intelligence briefs.

1. Government, National Bank Draft Joint Plan to Curb Inflation as Growth Targets Set Conservatively

Kazakhstan’s government and National Bank are drafting a coordinated plan to rein in inflation, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov told the Mazhilis, after consumer prices reached 12.9% in September. Bektenov defended conservative growth assumptions for the next three years amid a global slowdown and stressed macroeconomic stability, announcing an 8 trillion tenge Baiterek-backed program for infrastructure and industry, with 190 industrial launches planned in 2024 worth over 1.5 trillion tenge and a broader pipeline of 1,681 projects expected to create about 40,000 permanent jobs (egemen.kz).

Separately, Finance Minister Mädi Taqiev briefed the Mazhilis on 22 October 2025 about measures to address rising public debt, reported at 33.5 trillion tenge, signaling tighter fiscal management though details were not disclosed. For international observers and markets, the announcements imply forthcoming policy tightening—potential adjustments to borrowing, deficit targets and spending or revenue measures—that may be formalized through legislative action and will be critical to stabilizing inflation and sovereign debt dynamics.

Local Coverage: inform.kz, egemen.kz, zakon.kz

From daily brief: 2025-10-23

2. EU Blacklists VTB Bank Kazakhstan in 19th Sanctions Round; National Bank Responds

The European Union has added VTB Bank Kazakhstan to its 19th package of Russia-related sanctions, expanding restrictions on Russian state-linked financial infrastructure and potentially curbing the Kazakh subsidiary’s access to EU services, correspondent banking relationships and cross‑border transactions. The designation signals increased EU scrutiny of Russian-affiliated assets operating in third countries and is likely to prompt tighter compliance, more onerous due diligence and routing changes for firms that interact with the lender.

The National Bank of Kazakhstan has acknowledged the EU listing and is assessing implications for domestic banking-sector stability, oversight and compliance posture; market participants should expect heightened compliance checks, potential delays in operations with EU counterparties and closer coordination with regulators on sanction adherence and risk management.

Local Coverage: inform.kz, inform.kz

From daily brief: 2025-10-24

3. Senior Appointments Reshuffle Presidential Administration, Foreign Ministry, Courts, and Prosecution

Over the past week Kazakhstan implemented a coordinated personnel reshuffle across several top state bodies — the Presidential Administration, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the judiciary and the prosecution service — though the briefing did not disclose names, exact portfolios or dates. The breadth of the rotations, affecting both executive and legal branches, indicates a concerted effort to streamline governance and reinforce policy execution across administrative levers.

For international professionals, the key implications are continuity and direction: changes in the Foreign Ministry could alter diplomatic priorities and external economic engagement, while new judicial and prosecutorial appointments may influence the pace and orientation of legal reforms and case management. Absent official statements, observers should monitor subsequent disclosures for specific appointees and timing to assess impacts on bilateral relations, rule-of-law initiatives and domestic policy implementation.

Local Coverage: inform.kz

From daily brief: 2025-10-20

4. Petrochemical Build-Out Advances with New Polyethylene Plant, Propylene Output, and Butadiene Project Timelines

Kazakhstan is rapidly scaling petrochemical capacity in Atyrau, with Vice Minister of Energy Sanzhar Zharkeshov overseeing several major projects. A new polyethylene plant with 1.25 million t/y capacity is under construction—piling and foundations for the pyrolysis unit are in place and polymerization work is due to begin by late October; the plant is targeted to start in 2029, employ over 15,000 at peak construction and about 800 permanent staff, and produce more than 20 grades of polyethylene (40% classified as premium). Separately, KPI’s 500,000 t/y polypropylene facility has produced 456,000 t since 2022, exporting 430,000 t primarily to China, Russia, Türkiye and Europe (200,000 t of 230,000 t produced in Jan–Aug 2025).

Looking ahead, a 339,000 t/y butadiene complex is planned with construction in 2027 and commissioning in 2028, with procurement tenders currently underway. Zharkeshov also reviewed downstream capabilities at Intago’s polyester geosynthetics plant and the National Industrial Petrochemical Technopark SEZ, underscoring Kazakhstan’s push to expand integrated petrochemical value chains and export-oriented output across multiple product classes.

Local Coverage: dknews.kz

From daily brief: 2025-10-18

5. President Orders Action Plan to Steer Economic Reforms and Stabilize Economy

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has ordered Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov to submit by the end of this week a concrete action plan to accelerate the government's economic reform program, with targeted adjustments to stabilize the economy, support SMEs and improve the investment climate. The directive emphasizes tighter coordination and a results-focused approach that delivers measurable outcomes aligned with global market dynamics; presidential press secretary Ruslan Zheldibay stated the plan will serve as a roadmap for diversifying the economy, strengthening non-commodity sectors and reinforcing financial stability (informburo.kz; aikyn.kz).

For international investors and partners, the move signals an urgency to shore up macroeconomic conditions and increase policy predictability through specific measures to aid small and medium enterprises and boost business activity. The short deadline — end of this week — underlines the administration’s intent to move from strategy to implementable measures quickly, which could affect market access, risk assessments and opportunities in Kazakhstan’s non-commodity sectors.

Local Coverage: informburo.kz, inform.kz, zakon.kz, aikyn.kz, egemen.kz, dknews.kz

From daily brief: 2025-10-17

6. US Corporations Courted for $100B in Projects as Astana Highlights Growth, Stability

At a corporate roundtable in Astana, Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin urged senior executives from Chevron, ExxonMobil, Citi, Mastercard, Boeing and other US firms to expand investment in Kazakhstan, citing more than 600 US-capital companies already operating there and a suite of macroeconomic strengths: GDP exceeding $330 billion (roughly 60% of Central Asia), public debt at 22.2% of GDP, three consecutive years of growth above 5% (6.3% year‑to‑date through the first nine months of 2025), and investment‑grade ratings from S&P, Fitch and Moody’s.

Authorities have set a medium‑term GDP target of $450 billion by 2029 and highlighted over $100 billion in potential projects across agriprocessing, rail and auto manufacturing, fertilizers, waste processing, new mining (including rare earths), plus an additional $100 billion earmarked for energy and utilities over the next five years. For international corporates, the message frames Kazakhstan as a politically stable, creditworthy gateway for regional expansion with concrete investment pipelines in energy, manufacturing, finance, pharma and logistics.

Local Coverage: egemen.kz

From daily brief: 2025-10-17

7. Baku and Astana Deepen Strategic Partnership with Focus on Middle Corridor, Energy, and Digital Links

Kazakh President Kassym‑Jomart Tokayev and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev used Azerbaijan’s state visit to Astana to deepen a 20‑year strategic partnership, signing 15 cooperation documents and a joint statement to institutionalize closer ties across transport, energy, investment and digitalisation. Both leaders prioritized accelerating the Trans‑Caspian “Middle Corridor” — freight on the route rose 62% in 2023 to 4.5 million tonnes, and they set a target to lift throughput toward 10 million tonnes with upgrades including a container hub in Aktau, a new terminal in Alat, unified long‑term tariffs, and a possible ro‑ro/ferry link.

Energy and digital projects were prominent: Kazakhstan plans near‑term increases in oil transit via the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan route (Kazakh shipments reached ~1.5 million tonnes last year), expanded uranium logistics through Azerbaijan, and cross‑Caspian seabed power cables to enable “green” electricity exports. Leaders also agreed to revive a bilateral direct investment fund, pursue joint industrial ventures (transformers, shipbuilding, housing, IT), and speed a subsea fiber‑optic link and AI/digital cooperation — moves aimed at diversifying export routes, unlocking logistics capacity, and attracting investment into implementation‑focused working groups.

Local Coverage: aikyn.kz, egemen.kz, inform.kz, informburo.kz

From daily briefs: 2025-10-22, 2025-10-24

8. Five-Year $1.5 Billion Eurobond Priced at Record-Low Spread Draws Strong Global Demand

The Finance Ministry successfully priced a $1.5 billion five-year sovereign eurobond at a 4.412% yield and an 85 basis-point spread over U.S. Treasuries, its tightest spread since the country entered the eurobond market. Book orders topped $4.4 billion, allowing the issuer to tighten guidance; participation was broad across Europe and the U.S., with record demand from Asia and the Middle East and several first-time buyers of Kazakhstan sovereign debt.

The deal’s fixed yield is among the lowest for five-year investment-grade sovereigns and—after Kuwait (A+)—is the lowest in 2025 for Eastern Europe, Africa and the Middle East, outperforming comparable issues from higher-rated peers such as Poland, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The outcome underscores rising investor confidence tied to ongoing fiscal and tax reforms and broader political changes that have improved Kazakhstan’s investment climate.

Local Coverage: aikyn.kz

From daily brief: 2025-10-23

9. Middle Corridor Upgrade Briefed to Tokayev and Aliyev with Traffic Set to Triple by 2030

Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have briefed Presidents Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Ilham Aliyev on a joint plan to expand the Trans‑Caspian International Transport Route (the Middle Corridor), aiming to triple throughput by 2030. Presidential adviser Assel Zhanassova outlined coordinated upgrades across rail, ports, customs and digital systems to improve efficiency and competitiveness; current door‑to‑port transit from China’s border to Georgia’s ports runs about 15–18 days, a timeline the partners hope to sustain while growing capacity to capture rerouted Eurasian trade from northern pathways.

For international investors and shippers, the briefing signals a phased but deliberate push to raise capacity and service quality through the 2020s, prioritizing time‑sensitive, higher‑value cargo. The initiative’s emphasis on regulatory alignment and digitalisation suggests reduced friction at intermodal interfaces, improving predictability and making the Middle Corridor a more viable alternative in China–Central Asia–Europe logistics.

Local Coverage: aikyn.kz, egemen.kz, inform.kz, zakon.kz, dknews.kz

From daily brief: 2025-10-22

10. Magzhan Iliyasov Appointed Ambassador to the United States after Rotation in Top Diplomatic Posts

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has appointed career diplomat Magzhan Zhanbotayuly Iliyasov as Kazakhstan’s Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to the United States, concluding a rotation among senior envoys and replacing Erzhan Ashikbayev, who has been reassigned to First Deputy Foreign Minister. Iliyasov, whose previous postings include The Hague, the UN, and most recently London (with concurrent accreditation to Ireland and Iceland), was released from his UK and concurrent accreditations upon the appointment; no effective date was specified in the announcement.

The personnel move signals continuity rather than a policy shift as Astana manages priorities in security, energy and investment with Washington. Iliyasov’s background—Harvard Kennedy School training and experience in the Presidential Administration’s foreign policy center—points to an emphasis on multilateral coordination and high-level political dialogue with US counterparts, while Ashikbayev’s new role suggests a tighter link between Kyiv-facing diplomatic experience and ministry policymaking.

Local Coverage: zakon.kz, aikyn.kz, egemen.kz, informburo.kz, inform.kz, malim.kz, dknews.kz

From daily brief: 2025-10-21

About This Weekly Digest

The stories above represent the most significant developments from Kazakhstan this week, selected through our AI-powered analysis of hundreds of local news articles.

Stories are drawn from our daily intelligence briefs, which synthesize reporting from Kazakhstan's leading news sources to provide comprehensive situational awareness for international decision-makers.